The Trump honeymoon trades continue to unravel this week with the US Dollar index breaking down through 100.00 building on Monday’s break by the Dow under 20,000. The Dollar’s demise has ignited rallies in a number of currencies, most notably gold and JPY, defensive havens that have come under renewed accumulation. GBP, EUR, CAD, and SGD also posted strong gains today with NZD and AUD swinging upward within established trading ranges.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is testing the bottom of its 5,600 to 5,800 trading range and its 50-day average both of which have held so far with the index near 5,620. RSI breaking under 50, however, signals momentum turning downward with next potential support closer to 5,500.
Japan 225 is breaking down today, taking out the 19,000 round number and its 50-day average then retesting both as resistance to confirm the downturn. RSI falling under 50 signals a downturn as well. Recent trading in the 18,830 to 18,950 range.
Hong Kong 50 is closed for holidays
North American and European Indices
US 30 failed to retake 20,000 overnight confirming Monday’s breakdown by faltering at a lower high near 19,960. The index has turned decisively downward taking out Monday’s low near 19,870 and falling into the 19,790 to 19,840 range with next potential support near 19,700 an old channel bottom and its 50-day average. RSI retesting 50 where a breakdown would confirm a downturn in momentum.
US SPX 500 tried to regain 2,282 but failed confirming Monday’s breakdown. A head and shoulders pattern in the RSI also indicates a major top forming. The index has resumed its declines, falling toward 2,274 with next potential support near 2,252 a channel bottom and the 50-day average.
US NDAQ 100 successfully tested the bottom of its current 5,100 to 5,160 trading range but still looks vulnerable with RSI back under 70 after being overbought indicating upward momentum has peaked and a correction possible perhaps back toward 5,030 or even 5,000.
UK 100 continues to attract support above 7,100 a round number and Fibonacci level with RSI holding 50 keeping its underlying uptrend intact for now. The index has bounced toward 7,125 with next potential resistance near 7,160 then 7,200. Initial support rises toward 7,150.
Germany 30 is breaking down today, accelerating downward after breaking 11,700 then plunging down into the 11,550 to 11,585 area. RSI indicates a correction deepening and downturn pending. Next potential downside support near 11,500 then 11,445.
Gold is back on the move upward, regaining $1,200 and advancing on $1,215 before backsliding toward $1,211 a Fibonacci level in normal backing and filling. RSI holding 50 and rising indicates its underlying uptrend remains intact. Next resistance in place near $1,218 then $1,230 on trend.
Crude Oil WTI is bouncing around between $51.70 and $52.90 recently trading near $52.30 Next potential resistance near $53.00 as WTI continues to swing back and forth within a primary sideways range between $50.40 and $54.20. RSI bouncing between 40 and 60 confirms sideways momentum.
US Dollar Index is breaking down in a big way today, decisively dropping under the 100.00 big round number, and then falling toward 99.40. RSI still under 50 and falling indicates increasing distribution. Next potential support near 99.30 then 99.00.
EURUSD is breaking out today, driving up through the top a $1.0660 to $1.0760 trading range and carrying on toward $1.0810 while support rises toward $1.0780. RSI on the rise indicates upward momentum increasing. Next potential resistance appears near $1.0830 and a Fibonacci cluster then a measured $1.0860.
GBPUSD is climbing again, retaking $1.2500 and advancing into the $1.2550 to $1.2590 area. RSI back above 50 indicates an upswing underway within a sideways trend. Next upside resistance in place near $1.2685 a 23% Fibonacci retracement of the post Brexit selloff.
NZDUSD continues tis steady march upward advancing into the $0.7310 to $0.7350 area with next resistance possible near $0.7400 then $0.7475 and next support near $0.7365. RSI indicates upward momentum steady.
AUDUSD is climbing within a $0.7500 to $0.7620 trading range recently trading near $0.7580. Next resistance on a breakout possible near $0.7680 then $0.7725 with additional support in place at its 200-day moving average near $0.7480.
USDSGD is breaking down today, diving down from $1.4200 a lower high toward the $1.4075 to $1.4100 area around $1.4085 a Fibonacci level. Next potential resistance near the $1.4000 round number then $1.3950. RSI remaining below 50 and falling again confirms distribution continues and downward momentum accelerating.
USDJPY has resumed its downtrend following a retest of 114.05 as a lower Fibonacci barrier and the pair falling toward the 112.50 to 113.30 area. 50 on the RSI becoming resistance confirms distribution. Next potential support near 112.30 then 111.25, both Fibonacci levels.
GBPJPY has dropped back from 145.00 into the 140.00 to 143.00 area between its 50 and 200-day moving averages recently trading near 142.25 a Fibonacci level.
EURJPY successfully tested 121.00 channel support and appears to be on the rebound, climbing back up into the 121.50 to 122.10 area with next potential resistance near 122.90.
USDCAD is falling away from its 200-day average near $1.3125 dropping toward the $1.3020 to $1.3050 area with next potential support in the $1.2975 to $1.3000 zone between a Fibonacci test and a round number. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing.
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