It’s been another rough ride for major indices which look increasingly vulnerable to a seasonal selloff with triple tops and other breakdowns suggesting the recent summer rally may be over. Oil continues to stage big swings within a well-established channel. MXN and CAD have weakened ahead of today’s US Presidential debate while JPY strengthens against GBP and USD.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 faltered short of its 50-day average near 5,460 and has dropped back into the 5,380 to 5,400 area. RSI stalling near 50 suggests an upward bounce may be running out of gas. Next support in a downturn possible near 5,300.
Japan 225 broke down through its 50 and 200-day averages near 10,675 diving down into the 16,390 to 16,450 zone with next potential support near 16,330 the 16,060 both Fibonacci level. RSI back under 50 confirms momentum turning downward again.
Hong Kong 50 continues to break down, dropping into a range between 23,270 and 23,360 around 23,410 a Fibonacci level. RSI back under 50 signals momentum turning downward with next potential support near the 23,000 round number.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to roll over after the index faltered short of its 50-day average and the RSI faltered at 50 signalling a downturn. Recently trading between 18,100 and 18,180, next support appears near the 18,000 round number.
US NDAQ 100 has dropped back under 4,840 toward 4,820 calling off a recent breakout but remains supported above 4,800 so far. Should that fail, next potential support appears at the 50-day average near 4,775 then 4,740.
US SPX 500 breaking down having completed a triple top then a lower high falling back into the 2,145 to 2,155 area from 2,164 with next potential support near 2,134. RSI falling back under 50 signals momentum turning downward.
UK 100 has dropped back from near 6,880 toward 6,820 with next support near 6,795 the 50-day average then 6,700. A triple top appears to be in place with RSI faltering at 60 suggesting a downtrend emerging.
Germany 30 is under renewed pressure taking out 10,500 to complete a triple top and breaking its 50-day average near there to confirm a downturn. RSI back under 50 indicates new downtrend starting. Index has dropped toward 10,390 with next support possible near 10,300.
Gold remains well supported consolidating a recent rally above its 50-day average near $1,334 with next resistance possible in the $1,345 to $1,350 area. RSI bouncing between 40 and 60 indicates its broader $1,290 to $1,375 sideways trend remains intact.
Crude Oil WTI has bounced up off $43.75 back up through $45.00 a Fibonacci level and round number at the middle of two channels ($40-50 and $42.50-$47.50). A third channel may emerge between $44.00 the 50-day average and a recent high near $46.00. Price traded up toward $45.70 before settling back toward $45.30. RSI bouncing between 40 and 60 confirms sideways to slightly upward momentum.
US Dollar Index continues to drift downward nearing 95.00 as it falls away from 95.50 with next potential support near 94.70 and 94.30. RSI testing 50 where a break would confirm a downturn in momentum.
EURUSD continues to climb, advancing from near $1.1200 toward $1.1260 with next potential resistance near $1.1280 then $1.1330. RSI above 50 and rising indicates momentum turning increasingly upward.
EURGBP is back up above 0.8700 retesting its August peak near 0.8725 which could end in a double top or a breakout. RSI nearing overbought but confirms upward momentum increasing after a head and shoulders top failed.
GBPUSD has drifted back under $1.3000 toward $1.2970 while RSI suggests downward pressure increasing. It continues to hold above $1.2865 support where a triple bottom appears to be in place with more support possible near $1.2790.
NZDUSD successfully retested support at its 50-day average near $0.7230 to keep its uptrend intact with more support possible near $0.7195. RSI on 50 suggests support teetering but holding so far. Resistance has dropped toward $0.7290 from $0.7380.
AUDUSD has levelled off in the $0.7600 to $0.7700 range trading near $0.7640. RSI peaking at another lower high indicates upward momentum continues to weaken. On a downturn, next support could appear near the $0.7500 round number.
USDSGD continues to advance driving up from $1.3590 support toward $1.3620 with next potential resistance near $1.3665 then $1.3700. higher lows in the RSI indicate increased accumulation.
USDJPY continues to hold above 100.00 where it appears to have formed a triple bottom. Recently trading near 100.50, initial resistance appears near 102.25 and the 50-day average but it needs to clear 103.00 to call off a long-term downtrend.
GBPJPY is retesting 130.00 with more support possible near 128.60. In this zone a triple bottom appears to be forming but falling RSI suggests downward pressure increasing. Initial resistance on a bounce possible near 132.35.
EURJPY has levelled off near 113.00 as a 112.00 to 114.50 trading range emerges. RSI levelling off near 40 suggests base building still underway.
USDCAD is picking up again, rallying up off a higher low near $1.3170, retaking $1.3200 and trending toward $1.3225 with next resistance at the 200-day average near $1.3250. RSI holding 50 and higher lows indicate upward momentum accelerating.
USDMXN retested its recent 19.50 breakout point as new support and appears to be taking another run at the 20.00 round number recently trading near 19.87. RSI remains overbought so there appears potential for a trading correction at some point.
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