Despite warnings from the RSI momentum indicator, US indices continue to lead indices around the world upward in a relentless drive higher. Although a correction remains possible at some point, there have been no signs of reversals yet. At some point we could see a snapback but when or why remains unclear. Meanwhile, AUD, NZD and SGD have all started to attract renewed interest with the USD advance and JPY trading choppy.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 has cleared 5,800 and is testing its previous high near 5,815 which could end in a breakout or a double top. A lower high in the RSI suggests upward momentum slowing and a correction back toward 5,740 possible. On a breakout, next resistance may appear near 6,000 where a round number and measured move converge.
Japan 225 continues to struggle with resistance near 19,500 and appears to be completing a quadruple top. RSI failing at 60 and turning down suggests a sideways or downtrend emerging. Recently trading between 19,350 and 19,430, next potential support appears at the 50-day average near 19,240.
Hong Kong 50 is testing 24,000 trading between 23,970 and 24,040 following a big rally up from 23,750. Next potential resistance near 24,100 then 24,375. RSI getting overbought but confirms upward momentum still increasing for now.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has broken out over 20,500 trading up toward 20,600 before levelling off. It’s looking vulnerable to a correction, however with RSI getting overbought again, and a negative RSI divergence indicating upward momentum slowing. Initial support near 20,570 then 20,490.
US SPX 500 continues to climb, touching a new all-time high near 2,345 with next potential measured resistance near 2,350. RSI is getting really overbought so a correction possible with initial support near 2,336 then 2,322 a recent breakout point.
US NDAQ 100 touched a new high overnight near 5,300 but has started to slip back a bit in normal trading. RSI really overbought suggests a snapback possible but for now upward momentum remains intact. Next potential resistance near 5,300 with initial support possible near 5,230 then 5,200.
UK 100 remains in an upswing trading above 7,300 with next potential resistance near 7,320 then 7,365. Lower highs in the index and the RSI look troubling suggesting fading upward momentum. Next potential support in a pullback near 7,255 then 7,200.
Germany 30 appears to be forming a double top with the index peaking again near 11,850 then sliding back toward 11,785. Lower highs in the RSI indicate upward momentum weakening and distribution starting. Next potential support near 11,675 then the 50-day average near 11,530.
Gold continues to consolidate recent gains around $1,230 a Fibonacci level trading between $1,220 and $1,235 recently rallying from $1,224 toward $1,232 with next upside resistance on a breakout near $1,242. RSI steady above 50 indicates a consolidation phase within an ongoing uptrend.
Crude Oil WTI is still falling away from a recent retest of $53.85 channel resistance. The price has slipped into the $52.80 to $53.30 area with next potential support at the 50-day average near $52.25 then $51.65.
US Dollar Index remains under accumulation, building on its recent breakout over 101.00 which completed a saucer bottom by advancing to test its 50-day average near 101.40. Next upside tests possible near 101.70 and 102.00 with support rising toward 101.15. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum increasing.
EURUSD is breaking down again, taking out $1.0585 a Fibonacci level and retesting it as resistance after falling as low as $1.0520 approaching a potential test of the $1.0500 round number. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum increasing.
GBPUSD successfully tested support at its 50-day average near $1.2410 and has bounced up into the $1.2440 to $1.2480 area with next resistance at the $1.2500 round number. RSI breaking under 50 suggests momentum turning downward with next potential support near $1.2350.
NZDUSD has regained $0.7200 as it continues to bounce up off a successful test of its 200-day average near $0 7120. Next potential resistance near $0.72245 then $0.7265. RSI back above 50 confirms momentum turning back upward.
AUDUSD is still swinging upward within its $0.7600 to $0.7725 trading range recently rallying from $0.7640 to test $0.7700. Next potential resistance on a breakout near $0.7800.
USDSGD remains in a downtrend having successfully retested at $1.4260 a Fibonacci level and 50 on the RSI. The pair has dropped back toward the $1.4190 to $1.4220 area with next potential support near $1.4155. Next resistance on a breakout near $1.4300 and the 50-day average.
USDJPY is consolidating recent breakouts over 114.05 and 50 on the RSI which signalled the start of a new upswing. The pair has been trading near 114.45 with next potential resistance near 115.00 a round number and the 50-day average followed by a Fibonacci test near 115.50. Next potential support on a breakdown near 113.15.
GBPJPY is starting to level off near 142.25 a Fibonacci level after its latest advance was contained by the 50-day average near 142.85. RSI levelling off near 50 suggests a sideways range emerging with initial support possible near 140.80.
EURJPY is sitting on 121.00 a Fibonacci level retesting former support as new resistance. RSI still below 50 which it needs to retake to call off the current downtrend. Initial resistance possible near 121.40 with initial support near 120 50.
USDCAD is sitting just below $1.3100, the midpoint of an emerging $1.3000 to $1.3200 sideways channel, trading near $1.3075 as resistance falls toward $1.3125. RSI under 50 indicates consolidation within a bigger downtrend.
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