A dead cat bounce in stocks appears to be over and downswings deepening. WTI has dropped back toward $45 and may remain active through inventory reports. USD is on the rebound breaking out against SGD and CAD while also posting particularly strong gains against resource currencies like AUD and NZD. RSI crossings through 50 across a wide variety of contracts confirms big changes in momentum underway.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 keeps falling and keeps getting more oversold, diving down from near 5,270 through 5,185 a Fibonacci level and on toward 5,150 with next potential support near 5,095 then 5,000.
Japan 225 continues to bounce around between its 50-day average near 16,530 and its 200-day average near 16,820 but looks vulnerable with RSI sliding under 50 signalling momentum turning downward. Next support possible near 16,325 a Fibonacci level with next resistance near the 17,000 round number.
Hong Kong 50 continues to retreat with resistance falling toward 23,300 and the index dropping toward the 23,000 round number with next potential support after that near 22,655. RSI falling under 50 confirms momentum turning downward.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has resumed its downswing after faltering short of 18,360, a prior support level becoming resistance and falling toward 10,060 with next potential support at the 18,000 round number then 17,920. RSI stuck below 50 indicates downward pressure increasing following completion of a head and shoulders top.
US NDAQ 100’s rebound has stalled out below a lower high near 4,745 with more resistance possible near 4,800. RSI still below 50 suggests this could be a dead cat bounce. So far 50-day average support near 4,720 has held but if that fails, 4,630 could be tested.
US SPX 500 stalled short of its 50-day average near 2,170 and 50 on the RSI indicating it remains in a downtrend following a trading bounce. It has dropped back toward 2,120 with next potential support near 2,100 then 2,075 and resistance falling toward 2,150.
UK 100’s trading bounce was short lived with resistance holding at its 50-day average near 6,760 and 50 on the RSI. The index has dropped back toward the 6,650 to 6,680 area with next support possible near 6,660 then 6,600.
Germany 30’s bounce up off its 50-day average near 10,300 has been contained by resistance near 10,500 with the index dropping back toward 10,390. RSI falling away from 50 indicates the recent bounce was nothing more than a trading correction of a bigger downswing away from a double top.
Gold is having a bearish outside day having bounced above $1,330 briefly but faltering short of its 50-day average end diving down toward $1.316 with next potential support in the $1.290 to $1,300 area near a Fibonacci cluster.
Crude Oil WTI continues to trade near the middle of a $40-$50 trading range dropping back toward $45.00 where the midpoint, a round number, a Fibonacci level and the 50-day average cluster together, with RSI sitting on 50 confirming a sideways trend. Recent trading between $44.60 and $45.25.
US Dollar Index held 95.00 support indicating continued underlying support and has bounced back up toward 95.60 while RSI regaining 50 confirms an upturn in momentum. Initial resistance possible near 95.75 the 50-day average then 96.30.
EURUSD ran into resistance near $1.1260 and has drifted back toward $1.1200 with RSI drifting back toward 50 suggesting a downturn possible. Next potential support near $1.1140 where the 50 and 200-day averages converge.
GBPUSD ran into resistance near $1.3315 a 23% retracement of its Brexit selloff and has dropped back toward the $1.3180 to $1.3200 area. Signals are mixed with the 50-day average near $1.3130 holding but the RSI slipping under 50 to signal momentum turning back downward.
NZDUSD is starting to break down in earnest, with the pair diving back toward a retest of $0.7200 where the 50-day average and a Fibonacci test converge with resistance falling toward $0.7260.RSI diving under 50 confirms the downturn.
AUDUSD is breaking down today, taking out $0.7500 and falling toward the $0.7440 to $0.7470 zone with falling RSI confirming the increase in downward pressure. Next potential support at the 200-day average near $0.7390.
USDSGD is breaking out of a base today, clearing $1.3660, which may become support, and continuing to climb with next potential resistance at its 200-day average near $1.3740. RSI above 50 and rising indicates uptrend accelerating.
USDJPY has picked up support at a higher low near 101.70 and bounced toward 102.70 with downtrend, prior high and 50-day average resistance in place in the 102.80 to 103.00 area. RSI sitting back above 50 indicates momentum turning upward as base building continues.
GBPJPY continues to hold support at its 50-day average near 134.00 and 50 on the RSI keeping its uptrend intact for now, and has rebounded toward the 135.30 to 135.60 area with next resistance as it stabilizes following a rally and correction.
EURJPY continues to consolidate near 115.00 where a round number, the 50-day average and a Fibonacci level converge. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend intact with initial resistance near 115.30 then 116.10.
CADJPY remains under pressure with resistance falling toward 78.00 and support near 77.40 then 76.90. RSI falling away from 50 confirms downward momentum accelerating.
USDCAD cleared its previous high near $1.3140 and continues to climb, advancing on $1.3190 with next potential resistance near $1.3200 then $1.3240 where the July high and the 200-day average converge. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum increasing.
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