Today’s bigger technical signals appear more apparent in currency markets. A recent rally in EUR appears to be running out of gas, with the single currency starting to fail against USD and JPY. On the flip side, GBP is starting to break out against USD and JPY. The Yen itself is also starting to show signs of life showing signs of bottoming against USD and EUR. Meanwhile, AUD and NZD continue to trade near round numbers, sending mixed signals.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 remains under accumulation trading between 5,740 and 5,790 as it continues to form an ascending triangle above its 50-day average and below 5,835 resistance. RSI rising up off 50 indicates upward momentum increasing. Next resistance on a breakout possible near 5,910 then 6,000.
Japan 225 is bumping up against resistance near 19,675 for the index and 60 on the RSI where breakouts would signal the start of a new upleg but failures would confirm the current sideways to slightly upward momentum. On a breakout, the 20,000 round number could be challenged, on a failure, the 50-day average near 19,230 could be tested.
Hong Kong 50 continues to rebound, rallying up into the 23,820 to 23,860 range from 23,500. RSI bouncing up off 50 and the index holding its 50-day average near 23,290 indicates underlying uptrend remains intact. Resistance remains in place near 24,000 then 24,235.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is showing more signs of having peaked with the index unable to regain 20,900 let alone 21,000. RSI under 70 suggests a correction starting with an uptrend support line test underway and next downside support possible near 20,795 on a breakdown.
US SPX 500 has paused near 2,370 and appears to be resuming its downswing after a recent pop ran into resistance at a lower high near 2,382. RSI indicates upward momentum weakening. Next potential support near 2,352 then 2,313 the 50-day average and a 23% Fibonacci retracement.
US NDAQ 100 is still struggling with 5,395 resistance and appears to be forming a double top. RSI back under 70 and trending lower indicates upward momentum has peaked and is now weakening. Initial support in a pullback possible near 5,325 then 5,300.
UK 100 continues to advance on 7,400 climbing into the 7,340 to 7,370 zone. A retest of the recent high could end in a double top or the completion of a big ascending triangle. RSI indicates sideways to slightly upward momentum currently.
Germany 30 is still showing signs of rolling over with the index struggling with 12,000 again and slipping back into the 11,940 to 11,980 area. Falling RSI indicates upward momentum slowing. Next potential support near 11,880 then the 50-day average near 11,730.
Gold appears to be trying to turn back upward. The price jumped toward $1,211 in early trading but has since slumped back into its $1,200 to $1,205 congestion zone and Fibonacci cluster. A bear trap washout below Friday and RSI stabilizing near 40 suggest the recent downtrend may be ending. A positive day could complete a Morning Star pattern.
Crude Oil WTI is breaking down again, taking out its 200-day average near $48.50 and dropping toward $47.90 before stabilizing near $48.25 where it may be pausing to work off an oversold RSI. Next potential downside support near $47.00.
US Dollar Index continues to retreat after breaking an uptrend Friday. The pair is trading back near 101.00 having peaked in a double top near 102.10 last week. Falling RSI also indicates upward momentum slowing and a downturn possible. Next potential support near 100.30 then 100.00.
EURUSD’s latest rally appears to be over after the pair shot up into $1.0720 Fibonacci resistance, failed to get through and then slumped back toward $1.0655 in what looks like a bearish Shooting Star Candle forming. Next potential support near $1.0640 then $1.0585.
GBPUSD is breaking out today, clearing $1.2200 to signal the start of a new upswing and advancing on $1.2230 with next potential resistance near $1.2250 then $1.2305. RSI confirms downward pressure easing. The recent low near $1.2130 appears to have completed the right shoulder of a major head and shoulders base for Cable.
NZDUSD continues to bounce up off of $0.6900 support trading near $0.6925 while working off an oversold RSI but it still needs to retake the $0.7000 round number to signal the start of a more serious upturn.
AUDUSD continues to bounce up off of the $0.7500 round number, advancing on $0.7575 with next potential resistance near $0.7600 then $0.7625. RSI needs to regain 50, however, to call off the bigger downtrend.
USDSGD has retested $1.4085 confirming breakouts from a downtrend and over a Fibonacci level. RSI testing 50 where confirmation of an upturn is pending. Next potential resistance near $1.4155 then $1.4200 and the 50-day average.
USDJPY continues to decline following on from a bearish shooting star on Friday that saw the pair spike up into 115.50 Fibonacci resistance then dive back under 115.00 and fall on toward 114.70. A decline today could complete an Evening Star pattern. Next potential support near 114.05 where the 50-day average and a Fibonacci level converge.
GBPJPY continues its rebound, regaining 140.00 and advancing on 140.50 with next potential resistance near 141.15 the 50-day average then 142.25 a Fibonacci level. RSI bumping up against 50 where a breakout would confirm an upturn.
EURJPY’s latest rally has been rejected by 123 00 resistance with the pair slumping back toward 122.40. Next support possible near 121.50 with next resistance near 123.40.
USDCAD continues to roll over with the pair falling back under $1.3500 toward $1.3455, the completion of an Evening Star pattern Friday and RSI falling back under 70 all combining to signal the start of a downswing with next potential support near $1.3420 then $1.3375.
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