Oil remained under pressure Friday breaking the $50.00 level to confirm a downswing is deepening. Meanwhile major indices and currencies spent Friday in consolidation mode with GBP and EUR confirming their recent gains while the Germany 30 and France 40 continued to hold above 12,000 and 5,000 respectively and the Hong Kong 50 regained 24,000. Significant swings to start the week remain possible with direction depending on French election results.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 continues to climb, advancing on 5,850 having cleared 5,835 as it rallies up off of its 50-day average near 5,800. RSI back above 50 confirms momentum swinging upward. Next potential resistance near 5,900 then 5,950 and 6,000.
Hong Kong 50 has regained 24,000 but remains in a downtrend of lower highs with resistance falling toward 24,240. RSI still in a downtrend and RSI below 50 indicates continuing distribution. Next support possible near 23,910.
Japan 225 has bounced up from 18,560 toward 18,640 with RSI indicating downward pressure easing. So far this appears to be an upward correction. It needs to retake 18,835 and 50 on the RSI to call off its broader downtrend.
North American and European Indices
US 30 remains in a falling channel of lower highs and lows below 20,710 and its 50-day average. A recent rebound failed near 20,600 and the index has fallen back toward 20,550. RSI still under 50 indicates continuing distribution but a breakout would signal an upturn. Initial support near 20,500 then 20,380.
US SPX 500 ran into downtrend resistance and its 50-day average between 2,355 and 2,360 and has dropped back toward 2,350. Higher lows and RSI breaking out over 50 suggest accumulation resuming. Next upside resistance near 2,380 with next support near 2,335.
US NDAQ 100 met resistance near 5,455 after a rally up off of 5,400 and has dropped back toward 5,440. A head and shoulders top remains possible. RSI peaking at a lower high continues its downtrend and indicates distribution.
UK 100 continues to stabilize in the 7,100 to 7,130 area digesting recent losses including the completion of a head and shoulders top while working off an oversold RSI. Next upside test near 7,200 with next downside support at the 200-day average near 7,015.
Germany 30 continues to attract support above the 12,000 round number and its 50-day average, recently trading between 12,030 and 12,080 with next resistance possible near 12,100 then 12,165. RSI nearing 50 which it needs to retake to confirm an upturn. Next potential support on a failure possible near 11,925.
France 40 remains in an uptrend trading above the 5,000 round number and its 50-day average. It has encountered some resistance near 5,100 with more possible near 5,150. Recent trading has been in the 5,030 to 5,050 area. RSI is mixed, back above 50 but still in a downtrend.
Gold remains well supported, consolidating recent gains and working off an overbought RSI trading between $1,275 and $1,300. Recent trading between $1,280 and $1,286.
Crude Oil WTI broke down Friday, taking out the $50.00 round number and falling to test its 200-day average near $48.60 before rebounding to finish the week near $49.20. RSI has broken down under 50 indicating momentum turning downward. Next potential support near $47.70 a Fibonacci level.
US Dollar Index is slowly but surely creeping back upward toward 99.80 but it needs to retake 100.00 on the index and 50 on the RSI so signal an upswing. Next resistance near 100.30 then 100.65 if successful. If not, next potential support appears near 99.30 then 98.90.
EURUSD remains in an uptrend, bouncing up off a higher low near $1.0680 toward $1.0720 a Fibonacci level. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying accumulation remains intact. Next upside tests near $1.0740 and $1.0780 with next downside support near $1.0640 and $1.0585 both Fibonacci levels then $1.0500.
GBPUSD continues to consolidate between $1.2750 and $1.2850 trading near $1.2810 in what looks like normal backing and filling after a massive spike up from $1.2500 toward $1.2900 last week. The pair remains in an uptrend above its recent $1.2700 Fibonacci test and breakout point.
NZDUSD finished last week trading near $0.7030 in the upper half of a $0.6900 to $0.7100 trading range. Support moves up toward the $0.7000 midpoint with initial resistance at the 50-day average near $0.7045.RSI breaking through 50 and rising confirms momentum turning upward.
AUDUSD appears to be turning back upward following a correction with support moving up toward $0.7500 from $0.7470. The pair has moved up toward $0.7545 with next potential resistance near $0.7600 and the 50-day average. RSI needs to retake 50 to signal an upturn in momentum.
USDSGD is still stuck between $1.3950 and $1.4000. A double bottom appears to be in place near $1.3920 but the RSI still under 50 suggests this could be another pause in a bigger downtrend. Next potential support near $1.3880 with next potential resistance near $1.4060 and the 50-day average.
USDJPY continues to trade within a 109.00 to 109.25 Fibonacci cluster just above its 200-day average while digesting recent losses and working off an oversold RSI within a 108.00 to 109.50 range with more resistance possible near 110.00.
GBPJPY is consolidating its recent breakout over 138.50 which called off a descending triangle. The pair is trading near the 140.00 round number and just above its 50-day average. Next potential resistance appears near 140.75. RSI above 50 and rising confirms momentum accelerating upward.
EURJPY’s rebound up off of 115.00 has been contained by its 200-day average near 117.80. with oversold conditions having eased, the pair has dropped back toward the 116.50 to 117.30 area and could be resuming its broader downtrend.
USDCAD has encountered resistance near $1.3500 but has broken out of a symmetrical triangle and remains in an upswing above $1.3420 with next resistance near $1.3550. RSI above 50 indicates continued underlying accumulation.
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