This week’s trading is off to a big start. The US 30 broke out to a new all-time high, but no other indices have confirmed except for the Hong Kong, while the Japan 225 and Germany 30 have turned downward. The US Dollar is breaking down again, igniting rallies for EUR, GBP and JPY. Meanwhile, AUD, CAD and NZD are all hanging around big round numbers while consolidating recent advances.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 appears to be coming under distribution with a descending triangle of lower highs forming between 5,850 and 5,650. Resistance drops to the 50-day average near 5,740 while the index slides toward 5,700.
Japan 225 continues to drift downward, breaking under 20,000 and its 50-day average while the RSI falling under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 19,795 a 23% Fibonacci retracement of its previous uptrend.
Hong Kong 50 continues to climb but also continues to get more overbought and vulnerable. The index blasted up off of 27,000 toward 27,345 before slumping back toward 27,280.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is breaking out to new high today, clearing 21,800 then 21,900 and advancing on 21,920. Next upside test appears near the 22,000 round number. RSI getting overbought but continues to confirm upward momentum for now.
US SPX 500 is sitting just below 2,482 resistance trading near 2 472 while RSI suggests upward momentum may be flattening out. Higher lows indicate continuing accumulation. Next resistance on a breakout near the 2,500 round number with initial support near 2,460.
US NDAQ 100 remains well short of 6,000 round number and all-time high resistance. Resistance drops from 5,935 toward 5,895 with the index falling toward 5,875. Initial support in a downturn possible near 5,845 then 5,800. RSI back under 70 from overbought indicates upward momentum slowing and a correction underway.
UK 100 is bouncing around 7,400 trading between 7,380 and 7,414 as it continues to trend sideways in a channel between 7,295 and 7,515. RSI slipping under 50 suggests momentum turning downward within this range.
Germany 30 remains under distribution, falling toward 12,100 after a test of 12,220, the neckline of a completed head and shoulders top pattern confirms that level as new resistance. Next potential support possible near 12,090 then 12,000.
Gold remains under accumulation, bumping up against $1,270 resistance, while support rises toward $1,266 from $1,260. RSI indicates upward momentum still increasing. Next potential resistance near $1,282 then $1,295.
WTI crude oil is consolidating recent gains above its 200-day moving average near $49.15 and a $49.75 to $50.00 resistance zone between a Fibonacci level and round number. Next resistance near $50.90 on trend with next support near $48.65.
US Dollar Index is breaking down today, taking out 93.00 to signal the start of a new downleg on trend following a brief pause with next measured support possible near 92.00. Lower highs indicate continued distribution. RSI is oversold but confirming downward pressure for now.
EURUSD remains under accumulation, breaking out over $1.1780 and advancing on $1.1820. RSI remains overbought but higher lows indicate the current underlying uptrend remains intact. Next potential resistance near $1.1860 then the $1.2000 round number.
GBPUSD is breaking out today, clearing $1.3150 to complete an ascending triangle and signal the start of a new upleg. RSI steady above 50 indicates the underlying uptrend remains intact. Next measured resistance on a breakout possible near $1.3310 Support moves up toward $1.3130 with the pair trading up into the $1.3170 to $1.3200 area.
NZDUSD is sitting on $0.7500 while working off an overbought RSI, trading between $0.7455 and $0.7565.
AUDUSD is still stuck just below the $0.8000 round number after spiking up toward $0.8060 last week. An overbought RSI indicates potential for a trading correction, perhaps back into the $0.7900 to $0.7925 area with more support possible in a pullback near $0.7880.
USDSGD remains under distribution, trading in the $1.3530 to $1.3610 area working off an oversold RSI. Next potential support on a breakdown near the $1.3500 round number.
USDJPY is breaking down today, taking out 110.60 Fibonacci support and retesting it as new resistance with more possible at the 50-day average near 111.55. Next downside support tests possible near 110.00 then 109.00. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward momentum.
GBPJPY appears to be attracting support above 145.00, up from the 50-day average near 144.00. RSI lifting up off of a successful test of 50 support confirms its underlying uptrend remains intact. Next potential resistance near 146.00 then 146.55.
EURJPY is consolidating recent gains around 130.00, trading between 129.00 and 131.00. Overbought RSI conditions have eases and higher lows forming an ascending triangle indicate continuing accumulation. Next measured resistance on a breakout near 133.00.
USDCAD is consolidating recent losses between $1.2400 and $1.2580, recently trading below $1.2500 near $1.2490. The pair continues to work off an oversold RSI. It remains to be seen if this is a pause within a bigger downtrend or a base forming.
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