It's the best of times and the worst of times at the same time for indices. Some indices are looking very strong breaking out to new highs like the UK 100, Germany 30 and Hong Kong 50. On the other hand, the US 30, Australia 200, and US SPX 500 are struggling to even approach recent highs. GBP is rallying today and appears to have completed the right shoulder of a head and shoulders base while gold appears to be breaking out of a base of its own.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is sitting on 5,800 still forming an ascending triangle below 5,830 resistance and above 5,765 support. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum still increasing.
Japan 225 has stabilized near 19,500 having been knocked back down from 19,640 with more resistance near 19.675 the top of an ascending triangle. RSI creeping upward indicates growing upward momentum. Next support near 19,415, index remains in an uptrend above its 50-day average near 19,230.
Hong Kong 50 is breaking out today, blasting through 24,000 and 24,230 to signal the start of a new upleg then rallying into the 24,330 to 24,450 range. A negative divergence is forming in the RSI but upward momentum is accelerating.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is trading near 29,940, still struggling with 21,000 where a round number and the extension of a broken uptrend support line converge to form resistance. Next resistance near 21,155 on a breakout, support possible near 20,890 then 20,785.
US SPX 500’s latest upswing faltered near 2,390 short of 2,400 resistance falling back toward 2,382 while the RSI is faltering short of 70. This suggests recent gains may be just a trading bounce within an emerging sideways trend. Downside support appears near 2,380 then 2,350.
US NDAQ 100 broke out over 5,395 to a new high but is starting to struggle a bit sliding back toward 5,410 from 5,432 resistance in what so far looks like normal backing and filling. RSI indicates momentum turning back up but it’s also quickly getting overbought again.
UK 100 broke out over 7,400 to a new high on trend today but after running into resistance near 7,445, has dropped back toward 7,425 in a retest of old resistance as new support. The RSI has not confirmed the new high but it is breaking out of a downtrend confirming an upturn in momentum but sending a bit of a mixed signal.
Germany 30 is breaking out today, regaining 12,000 then blasting through 12,080 to a new high and climbing toward 12,145 before falling back to retest its breakout point as support. Next measured resistance on trend possible near 12,240. RSI rising reflects rally but a negative divergence fails to confirm the new index high.
Gold continues to rally, building on Wednesday’s breakout over $1,210 by blasting through $1,218 and driving on toward $1,228 with next potential resistance near $1,230 a Fibonacci level then $1,236. RSI regaining 50 confirms momentum turning upward.
Crude Oil WTI continues to bounce up out of a hammer bottom with support rising toward $48.40 and the price testing $49.00 with next potential resistance near $49.40 then $50.00 then $50.65. RSI back above 30 indicates downward pressure easing.
US Dollar Index has paused near the bottom of Wednesday’s plunge from 101.60 toward 100.30. RSI breaking under 50 signals momentum turning downward with next potential support near 100.00 then a measured 99.20.
EURUSD has levelled off near $1.0720, pausing to digest recent gains that saw the pair spike up from $1.0620. Support has moved up toward $1.0700 from $1.0640. Next resistance tests appear near $1.0750 then $1.0800.
GBPUSD is rallying again today driving up off $1.2260 toward $1.2350 confirming the formation of the right shoulder of a head and shoulders base. Support rises toward $1.2320 with next potential resistance near $1.2375 the 50-day average then $1.2485.
NZDUSD ran into resistance near $0.7040 and has been knocked back under $0.7000 The pair is holding above $0.6900 trading near $0.6975 so it’s unclear if this is a setback within a rebound or a bigger downtrend reasserting itself.
AUDUSD rallied into its $0.7700 to $0.7740 resistance zone where it failed again and has since rolled back down toward $0.7665. A lower high in the RSI indicates weakening upward momentum. Next potential support in a pullback near $0.7600 then the 50-day average near $0.7580.
USDSGD is testing $1.4000 support which could end in a breakdown and the start of a new downleg or a double bottom. Next potential support on a breakdown near $1.3970 then $1.3950 a Fibonacci level. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing.
USDJPY continues its downswing within a broad sideways trend with RSI falling under 50 confirming downward pressure. Resistance drops from 115.00 toward 114.05 with the pair dropping toward 113.25. Next potential support near 112.55 then 111.60.
GBPJPY has bounced back up toward 140.00 from 138.80 support but it needs to break through its 50-day average near 140.80 to call off the current downtrend. RSI still under 50 which it needs to retake to confirm an upturn in momentum. Next resistance on a breakout near 142.25 with more support in place near 138.10.
EURJPY has stabilized near 121.40 above 121.00 Fibonacci support after being knocked back from 122.95 channel resistance. RSI falling toward 50 suggests the latest upswing within a sideways trend may be over. Next potential pullback support near 120.35 then 120.00.
USDCAD is testing $1.3300 on the pair and 50 on the RSI looking for confirmation of a downturn after breaking down through $1.3400 on Wednesday. Next potential support in the $1.3175 to $1.3200 area where the 50 and 200-day averages cluster.
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