The RBNZ’s attempt to talk down NZD appears to be working in spades with the currency staging a bearish outside day to indicate increasing selling pressure. Indices are also breaking down in what feels like dams bursting and floodgates opening. On the flip side, gold and JPY are breaking out on renewed interest in defensive havens.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 has turned downward again after again failing to break through a wall of resistance at 5,800. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken an uptrend and fallen under 50 signalling a downturn in momentum. Next support for the index appears at the 200-day average near 5,700 then 5,655 channel support.
Japan 225 has gone into a nosedive following its break below 20,000. Resistance drops toward 19,795 while the index has dropped toward 19,475 both Fibonacci retracement levels. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward pressure. Next potential support near 19,310 the 200-day average.
Hong Kong 50 has turned sharply downward, diving from near 27,800 down into the 27.275 to 27,300 areas. RSI diving under 70 confirms a big correction underway. Next potential support near 27,100 a 23% retracement of the previous advance.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is breaking down today. The index falling under 22,000 and the RSI falling back under 70 from overbought territory signal a downward correction is underway with next potential support near 21,900 then 21 835.
US SPX 500 continues to fall away from 2,482 following a failed breakout. 2,460 initial support failed to hold and the index has dropped under 2,450. Next support may appear between 2,438 and 2,446 between trend support and the 50-day average. RSI approaching 50 where a breakdown would signal a downturn in momentum.
US NDAQ 100 broke down decisively Thursday. The index took out its previous low near 5,840 and the RSI dove under 50 to signal a confirmed downturn. Falling toward 5,825, next potential support for the index appears near 5,770 then 5,660, a 23% retracement.
UK 100 continues to fall away from 7,500 into the lower half of its 7,290 to 7,520 trading range. Breaking 7,390 and falling toward 7,375 has caused an ascending triangle to fail. RSI dropping back under 50 confirms a downswing underway within a sideways trend.
Germany 30 is breaking down today, taking out 12,090 and then 12,000 to signal the start of a new downleg with a falling RSI confirming increasing downward pressure. Next potential support appears about 11,910 near the 200-day average.
Gold continues to build on its breakout over $1,275, trading above $1,280 near $1,284 and overtaking the extension of a broken uptrend line, a bullish signal. Next resistance possible in the $1,296 to $1,300 area. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.
WTI crude oil tested $50.00 round number resistance and took a big tumble after failing to break through that key resistance level, diving back down toward $48.50. Next support possible near $48.10, a Fibonacci level, then $47.45. RSI rollover indicates upward momentum weakening.
US Dollar Index has broken out of a downtrend and is consolidating its breakout over 93.00 near 93.55. RSI climbing toward 50 indicates downward pressure easing and an upturn in momentum pending. Next potential resistance near 94.00 then 94.60.
EURUSD has bounced up off of $1.1705, a Fibonacci level and may be stabilizing between there and $1.1770 initial rebound resistance. RSI stabilizing near 60 suggests the recent pullback may have run its course already.
GBPUSD has stabilized near $1.3000 having found some support near $1.2950 and bounced back up through $1.2970 a Fibonacci level. RSI holding near 50 suggests recent weakness was a correction within a continuing uptrend which remains intact above $1.28935 the 50-day average.
NZDUSD has come under heavy pressure today, diving form near $0.7380 toward $0.7275 the 23% and 38% Fibonacci retracements of the previous uptrend. RSI under 50 and falling confirms increasing downward momentum. Next potential support near $0.7245 then $0.7190.
AUDUSD is breaking down today, falling under $0.7900 to complete a rounded top. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading fast and a downturn pending. Next potential support appears near $0.7820 then $0.7780.
USDSGD continues to form a saucer bottom between $1.3540 and $1.3660 recently trading near $1.3630. Next upside resistance possible near $1.3680 and $1.3700 with initial support rising toward $1.3600. RSI gaining on 50 indicates downward pressure easing.
USDJPY remains under distribution, consolidating its recent break under 110.00 trading near 109.35 with next potential support near 109.00 then 108.75. Steady RSI near 40 indicates continuing consistent distribution.
GBPJPY has taken another tumble, falling from 143. 30 lower Fibonacci resistance toward a test of the 200-day average near 141.85. Falling RSI confirms an accelerating downtrend. Next potential support near 141.00 then 140.40.
EURJPY is breaking down again, following a break under 130.00 with a break of an uptrend line near 129.40. RSI falling under 50 confirms these bearish signals and the start of a downtrend. Next potential support near 127.65 then 50-day average.
USDCAD continues to advance with support moving up toward $1.2700 from $1.2640. The pair is testing $1.2740 a 23% retracement and 50 on the RSI where breakouts would signal the start of another upleg on trend. Next upside resistance after that possible near $1.2770 then $1.2860.
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