The big post-election flow of capital out of defensive havens like gold and JPY into risk markets like stocks increasingly appears to be reversing course. JPY is on the rebound staging strong moves upward against USD, EUR and GBP ahead of today’s BOJ meeting. Meanwhile, stock indices around the world increasingly look like they have peaked and are starting to come under distribution.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is starting to roll over, having peaked at a lower high near 5,725 and falling into the 5,630 to 5,660 zone with next potential support near 5,600 and its 50-day average then 5,500. RSI back under 50 signals momentum turning downward again.
Japan 225 tumbled from near 19,300 toward 19,100 on the Yen rally and could potentially retest 19,000 a big round number near the 50-day average with next support after that possible near 18,805.
Hong Kong 50 is closed for holidays
North American and European Indices
US 30 is breaking down today with support collapsing following a break of the 20,000 which led to the pair falling to test 19,860 before rebounding toward 19,940. Lower highs in the RSI and the index indicate upward momentum weakening and distribution starting. Initial support near 19,900.
US SPX 500 has fallen under distribution, having failed to meaningfully break through 2,300 resistance. The index plunged from near 2,290 down through 2,282 a recent breakout point that has become resistance and on into the 2,271 to 2,278 range with next potential downside support near 2,262.
US NDAQ 100 continues to trade in a 5,100 to 5,170 range but looks increasingly vulnerable with RSI breaking under 70 from overbought to signal upward momentum exhausted and a correction starting. Next potential support on a breakdown near 5,030 then 5,000.
UK 100 continues to trend downward within a 7,100 to 7,200 range with resistance falling toward 7,140. RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum downturn. Next potential support on a breakdown possible near 7,030 a test of the 50-day average then the 7,000 round number.
Germany 30 is accelerating downward completing a bearish candle formation similar to an Evening Star with a bearish Shooting Star and Negative RSI divergence at the top. The index has dropped back from 11,890 to a retest of 11,700 where a break would signal a downturn with next potential support near 11,560.
Gold has established support near $1,180 with a hammer candle Friday potentially putting in a bottom and starting to form a Morning Star candle. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend remains intact while today’s bounce toward $1,193 signals base building starting. It really needs to retake $1,200 to signal an upturn.
Crude Oil WTI is still bouncing around the middle of a $50 40 to $54.20 trading range. RSI indicates slightly positive momentum within a generally sideways trend. Recent trading in the $51.95 to $53.45 area.
US Dollar Index continues to climb up off of 100.00 big round number support with the index advancing on 100.50 and support rising toward 100.40. RSI approaching 50 where a breakout would confirm an upturn with next potential resistance near 101.00 then 101.60 and 102.00.
EURUSD started to break down falling under $1.0655 dropping toward $1.0630 but has since bounced back up through $1.0685 and on toward the $1.0690 to $1.0715 area.
Some kind of trading range may be emerging around Fibonacci levels near 1.0720 and $1.0640.
GBPUSD is hanging around $1.2500 still stuck below $1.2685 Fibonacci resistance but digesting its recent rally at a higher level and above its 50-day average near $1.2440. This along with an upward trending RSI indicates this as a consolidation phase within an emerging uptrend.
NZDUSD is testing the top of a $0.7220 to $0.7300 zone where it has been consolidating recent gains. Next potential resistance near $0.7390 its Movember high with next support at its 200-day average near $0.7100.
AUDUSD remains stuck between $0.7500 and $0.7600 consolidating recent gains near $0.7550. RSI confirms upward momentum levelling off. Next upside resistance near $0.7725 with next downside support possible near $0.7400 and the 50-day average.
USDSGD has resumed its downtrend following a successful test of $1.4320 its 50-day average and 50 on the RSI as resistance. The pair has dropped to test $1.4210 with next potential support near $1.4155 then $1.4085.
USDJPY has turned back downward plunging down from resistance near 115.50 where a Fibonacci level and the 50-day average cluster, along with 50 on the RSI, after failing to break through any of them. The pair has plunged down through 114.05 and on into the 113.50 to 113.80 area signalling that its downtrend has resumed. Next support possible near 112.35 a Fibonacci test.
GBPJPY is breaking down today, diving from near 144.75 down through 142.25 which may become resistance an on toward 141.70. Next potential support appears near 141.10 the 200-day average then the 140.00 round number.
EURJPY ran into resistance at a lower high near 123.00 and has started to retreat once again, diving back down into the 121.40 to 121.70 area with next potential support near 121.00 a Fibonacci level and channel bottom.
USDCAD is pretty much sitting on its 200-day average near $1.3115, trading between $1.3040 and $1.3170. RSI sending mixed signals stuck between 40 and 50. Next upside test near $1.3300 where the 50-day average and a Fibonacci level converge with next downside test near $1.3000 where a Fibonacci level and round number converge.
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