JPY pairs have been really overbought for a while and appear to finally be showing signs of cracking particularly EURJPY and GBPJPY with downward reversals underway today. Other markets appear to be consolidating the major moves of the last several days and weeks.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 continues to consolidate between 5,400 and 5,500 recently trading near 5,450 holding above its 50-day average and below the high end of a 5,200 to 5,500 sideways range. RSI indicates momentum downshifting from upward to neutral.
Japan 225 remains under accumulation recently picking up from near 18,350 toward 18,450. Overall, however, it continues to trend sideways between 18,200 and 18,750 consolidating its big November advance.
Hong Kong 50 has an upswing underway within a 22,325 to 23,000 range recently rallying from near 22,700 toward 22,750. Initial resistance near 22,810 with next support near 22,500.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is having an inside day consolidating Monday’s big breakout and working off an overbought RSI trading near 10,225. A trading range between 10,100 and 10,280 appears to be emerging with next measured resistance possible on a breakout near 10,400.
US SPX 500 is holding steady just above 2,200 trading between 2,180 and 2,220 with next measured resistance near 2,260 and more support possible at the 50-day average near 2,155.
US NDAQ 100 is building on Monday’s big bounce up off 4,700 through 4,740 and on toward 4,800 just below the middle of a sideways channel between 4,700 and 4,900. RSI holding 40 indicates underlying uptrend intact through the current consolidation phase.
UK 100 continues to climb up off 6,700 with support rising toward 6,730 and the index advancing on 6,800 with next potential resistance near 6,810 then 6,860. RSI holding 40 indicates recent declines were a correction within an ongoing uptrend.
Germany 30 continues to advance clearing 10,700 then 10,740 driving to test 10,800 with next resistance possible near 10,880. Support rises toward 10,770.
Gold is essentially sitting on $1,172 a Fibonacci level trading between $1,166 and $1,175 as it continues to build a base in the $1,155 to $1,188 range. Oversold RSI and a positive divergence indicate downward momentum easing and a rebound possible.
Crude Oil WTI continues to struggle with $51.50 resistance slicing back toward $50.50. RSI indicates upward momentum levelling off but so far it looks like a pause not a correction. Initial support possible near $50.00 then $49.70 with next resistance near $52.00.
US Dollar Index has paused near 100.30 a 23% retracement of its recent rally, to digest Monday’s big plunge down from 101.80 to test the 100.00 round number and 99.75 Fibonacci support. RSI holding 50 for now but a break would confirm that momentum has turned downward. Initial rebound resistance near 100.60 then 100.90.
EURUSD has encountered some resistance near $1.0775 plus 50 on the RSI and has dropped back toward $1.0710 in what looks like normal backing and filling after Monday’s massive rally up off $1.0500. Additional support possible near $1.0685 a Fibonacci level.
GBPUSD has a bearish reversal underway that could signal the start of a trading correction. The pair rallied up toward $1.2800 where it met resistance and then fell back under $1.2700 a Fibonacci level and on into the $1.2660 to $1.2680 zone. So far it remains in an uptrend of higher lows with RSI indicating underlying uptrend still intact through this downdraft.
NZDUSD ran into resistance at its 50-day average near $0.7155 and has dropped back toward $0.7100. It remains in an upswing above its 200-day average near $0.7040 but RSI failing to retake 50 suggests its longer-term downtrend may be reasserting itself.
AUDUSD continues to struggle with $0.7500 resistance, recently trading near $0.7450. Trends of higher lows for the pair and the RSI indicate continued underlying accumulation with an upturn pending. Initial resistance on a breakout possible in the $0.7535 to $0.7555 area between the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
USDSGD is clinging to $1.4200 support where a failure would signal the completion of a double top and the start of a new downtrend with next potential support near $1.4120 then $1.4000. RSI sliding toward 50 indicates upward momentum weakening.
USDJPY has paused near 114.00 trading between 113.70 and 14.20 within a wider 112.80 to 114.80 consolidation range. RSI is still overbought and indicates upward momentum slowing but support refuses to give way so far. Look out below if it does…
GBPJPY has paused short of 146.40 a Fibonacci level and has slumped back under 145.00 toward 144.20. An overbought RSI and a negative divergence indicate upward momentum slowing and a correction possible with next potential support at the 200-day average near 143.75 then 142.25 a Fibonacci level.
EURJPY is looking tired having met resistance near 123.25 and sliding back toward 122.10. Overbought RSI suggests potential for a correction with initial support possible near 121.10 a Fibonacci level then the 120.00 round number.
USDCAD continues to retreat having confirmed the recent breakdown below uptrend support near $1.3320 that has become resistance along with $1.3300 a Fibonacci level. Pair is trading near $1.3280 with next potential support near $1.3240 then $1.3165.
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