There’s been a lot of action in currency markets today. Sterling failed at channel resistance and took a tumble but round number support held. AUD is picking up today, also challenging channel resistance. JPY is attracting renewed interest gaining ground on USD, GBP and EUR, while gold also continues to climb. EUR has turned downward after failing to break through a Fibonacci cluster. Indices remain under steady distribution.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is trading near 5,650 but looks like it may be coming under distribution with resistance falling toward 5,675 and lower high forming a descending triangle above 5,600. RSI falling under 50 also signals momentum turning downward. Next potential support on a breakdown possible near 5,530 then 5,500.
Japan 225 is still hanging around the 19,000 big round number with RSI on 50 indicating neutral momentum as it swings back and forth between 18,800 and 19,260.
Hong Kong 50 is sending mixed signals. The index has run into significant resistance near 23,500. It was knocked back toward 23,150 but has managed to hold above 23,000 and has since bounced back toward 23,250 with support rising toward 23,200 and next resistance possible near 23,275.
North American and European Indices
US 30 remains under distribution, continuing to fall away from 20,000 trading in the 19,800 to 19,900 area with next potential support at the 50-day average near 19,730 then the 19,660 channel bottom. RSI has a big test of support at 50 underway. Should that hold, it would indicate the underlying uptrend continues but a break would signal a downturn in momentum and the potential for deeper declines in the index.
US SPX 500 is drifting near 2,075 well short of 2,282 resistance but well above next potential support near 2,252 where the 50-day average and a Fibonacci level converge. RSI testing 50 where a break could signal momentum turning downward as a big top forms.
US NDAQ 100 continues to trend sideways between 5,100 and 5,175 recently trading near 5,140. Lower highs in the index and a head and shoulders top forming in the RSI suggest that a significant top may be forming. Next potential support possible near 5,070, 5,035 and the 5,000 big round number.
UK 100 increasingly looks like its recent selloff has ended with support continuing to come in near 7,100. The index has bounced toward 7,150 with support rising toward 7,130. Resistance in place near 7,175 then 7,200. RSI stabilizing near 50 indicates momentum stabilizing.
Germany 30 continues to decline with resistance falling from 11,725 toward 11,660. The index has been trading near 11,640 with next potential support near 11,610 then 11,500 and 11,445. RSI trending lower indicates a shift from accumulation to distribution.
Gold is in rally mode again today, driving up off $1,211 Fibonacci support through $1,218 to test channel resistance near $1,220 before settling back toward $1,216 with initial support near $1,214. Next potential tests on a breakout possible near $1,224 then $1,230. RSI breaking out of a downtrend confirms upward momentum accelerating.
Crude Oil WTI is trending toward the top of its $50.40 to $54.20 trading range with higher lows forming an ascending triangle and rising RSI confirming increasing upward momentum as a bullish ascending triangle forms. Recent trading in the $53.00 to $53.50 area. Next potential resistance on a breakout near the $55.00 round number.
US Dollar Index keeps trending downward with declines in the index and the RSI confirming each other. The pair bounced off an early low near 99.20 back up toward 99.80 but remains unable to reclaim the 100.00 big round number, keeping it in a falling channel.
EURUSD failed to get through a Fibonacci cluster near $1.0830 and has been knocked back under $1.0800 falling toward $1.0760 with next potential support in place near $1.0720. Flattening RSI suggest upward momentum levelling off.
GBPUSD has a bearish reversal underway having peeked above $1.2685 briefly, encountering more resistance near $1.2700 and then getting pounded back toward $1.2520 with initial resistance falling back toward $1.2570 then $1.2600. So far this looks like a sharp correction of Wednesday’s gains but so far losses have been contained by the $1.2500 round number with more support possible at the 50-day average near $1.2420.
NZDUSD has started to level off between $0.7225 and $0.7350 with RSI indicating upward momentum levelling off. At this point it’s too early to tell if this is a consolidation phase or a top forming ending an upswing within its broad $0.6900 to $0.7400 trading range.
AUDUSD broke out over $0.7600 in a big way today completing an ascending triangle and then taking a run at $0.7700 before sliding back toward $0.7660. Next resistance in place near $0.7725 then $0.7780. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum still increasing but nearing overbought territory.
USDSGD is consolidating between $1.4085 Fibonacci support and initial resistance near $1.4155 in what looks like a pause for a rest within an ongoing downtrend. RSI remains below 50 indicating its broader downtrend remains intact for now. Next potential support near the $1.4000 round number.
USDJPY is testing the bottom of a 112.35 to 115.50 trading range. RSI under 50 and falling and lower highs for the pair indicate increasing distribution. Currently trading between 112.50 and 112.80, next potential support appears near 111.25 a 38% retracement of the post-US election uptrend.
GBPJPY has dropped back under the 142.25 Fibonacci level, falling toward the bottom if its 141.00 to 145.00 trading range. RSI falling under 50 signals momentum turning downward. Next potential support possible near 140.00 a round number and the 200-day average then 139.00
EURJPY failed at another lower high and continues to form a bearish descending triangle pattern above 121.00 Fibonacci support with the pair falling from 121.65 toward 121.25. RSI sliding back under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 120.00 then 119.00 on a breakdown.
USDCAD is testing support in the $1.2975 to $1.3000 area between a round number and a Fibonacci level with the pair trading near $1.3030. Resistance drops toward $1.3055 a lower high with falling RSI confirming increasing downward pressure. Next potential downside support near $1.2900 on trend.
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