There have been a number of major intraday reversals today, in some cases, these may be trading corrections of overextended markets, while in others, significant reversals may be underway. Capital has started to pull back out of defensive havens like gold and JPY, returning to USD and stocks. EUR and CAD may be in the process of forming significant tops while AUD and NZD appear to be reloading for rebounds.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is increasingly coming under pressure with the RSI dropping back under 50 and the index falling back under 5,700 to retest 5,655 channel support. Next support on a breakdown possible near 5,625 then a measured 5,500.
Japan 225 has bounced up from 19,240 Fibonacci support toward 19,430 but it remains stuck below its 200-day average and 50 on the RSI indicating it isn’t out of the woods yet. Next resistance near 19,485 with next support near 19,175.
Hong Kong 50 has dropped back into the 27,690 to 27,890 zone and appears to be peaking. The index remains unable to hold above 28,000 while a negative RSI divergence indicates slowing upward momentum.
North American and European Indices
US 30 held support at its 50-day average near 21,685 and has bounced back up toward 21,835. RSI is sitting on 50 and could go either way. The index needs to retake 21,910 to call off its current downtrend.
US SPX 500 remains under distribution with the RSI falling away from 50 to indicate increasing downward momentum. Resistance falls toward 2,445 with next potential support near 2,421 then 2,400.
US NDAQ 100 bounced up from 5,770 toward 5,860 but it essentially continues to bounce around 5,800 and its 50-day moving average with RSI sitting on 50 confirming sideways momentum. A bearish descending triangle continues to form above 5,775.
UK 100 has turned downward again, falling to test the bottom of a 7,300 to 7,500 trading range before rebounding toward a lower high near 7,350. RSI failing to retake 50 and turning downward confirms bears reasserting themselves. Next potential support appears at the 200-day average near 7,270 then 7,200.
Germany 30 is breaking down today in a big way, taking out its 200-day average and the 12,000 round number to confirm the start of a new downtrend then retesting the breakdown point as new resistance. Support appears near 11,865 then 11,800, a 38% retracement of the previous uptrend. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward momentum.
Gold started the day off strong, building on its breakout over $1,300 by soaring toward $1,325. Support faded as the day progressed and the price slipped back toward $1,310 new higher support. RSI getting overbought but confirming upward momentum continues.
WTI crude oil continues to attract support near $46.00 but trading upside has been contained by the 50-day average near $46.85 and remains small relative to Monday’s big drop down from $48.00. RSI back under 50 and falling confirms momentum has turned back downward. Next potential support in the $45.00 to $45.20 area.
US Dollar Index has regained 92.00 after diving down toward 91.45 at one point in what looks like a bear trap washout and hammer candle. Additional support possible near a measured 90.80 with initial bounce resistance possible near 92.45 then 93.00.
EURUSD is showing signs of peaking, slumping back under $1.2000 after shooting up toward $1.2070 to form a bearish shooting star candle. RSI is getting overbought and a negative divergence has emerged indicating slowing upward momentum and increased risk of a correction.
GBPUSD continues to struggle with $1.2970 Fibonacci resistance and has dropped back toward $1.2925. It remains in an uptrend above $1.2900. RSI testing 50 where a breakout would signal that a recent downdraft is over and accumulation resuming. RSI has regained 50 to signal momentum turning upward.
NZDUSD ran into resistance at a lower high near $0.7300 and has drifted back toward $0.7250 as it trades near $0.7275 a Fibonacci level. RSI holding 40 suggests downward pressure weakening as the pair base builds above $0.7190 Fibonacci support.
AUDUSD continues to struggle with $0.8000 resistance but at the same time, remains under accumulation above $0.7900 with higher lows in the pair forming an ascending triangle and a rising RSI indicating increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance near $0.8070 with next support near $0.7865.
USDSGD held the $1.3500 round number and has bounced back up toward $1.3545. Initial bounce resistance possible near $1.3590 then $1.3635. The pair remains in a downtrend below its 50-day average near $1.3700.
USDJPY has bounced back up above 109.00 toward 109.45 having successfully retested 108.10 support. The pair remains in a downtrend below 110.00 although the RSI advancing on 50 suggests downward pressure easing. .
GBPJPY continues to turn back upward, rallying toward 141.50 up off of 140.00 round number support. RSI climbing toward 50 confirms downward pressure fading. Next resistance possible near 141.85 a Fibonacci level then the 200-day average near 142.45.
EURJPY is testing 131.35 which could end in a big breakout or a triple top. Rising RSI indicates increasing upward momentum with support rising toward 130.00. Next potential resistance on a breakout near a measured 134.00.
USDCAD has bounced up off of $1.2450 and regained $1.2500, advancing on $1.2535 with next resistance near $1.2595. A higher low in the RSI suggests downward pressure easing. A double bottom now appears to be in place.
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