I’ve been thinking that fear trades were getting pretty crowded and today it looks like we could be starting to see things swing back the other way a bit. JPY pairs retested recent lows to complete double bottoms while Gold finished lower than its intraday high, while stocks, oil and CAD rebounded to gains and GBP clawed back some early losses. Gains for AUD and NZD suggest the flight to safety may be fading.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 found support at a higher low near 5,145 and has started to bounce back, rallying toward the 5,200 to 5,210 area with next potential resistance near 5,300. RSI levelling off near 50 suggests recent selloff may be winding down.
Japan 225 has started to bounce back after finding some support near 15,115 advancing back into the 15,290 to 15,360 range with next resistance near 15,555 a Fibonacci level. RSI levelling off near 50 suggests downward momentum starting to fade.
Hong Kong 50 has been bouncing around between 20,310 and 20,460 with RSI hovering near 50 confirming a sideways trend between 20,200 and 20,560 both Fibonacci levels.
North American and European Indices
US 30 successfully retested the low end of a range between its 500-day average near 17,740 and the 18,000 level and has bounced back into the 17,860 to 17,900 area. RSI trending downward suggests upward momentum still slowing.
US NDAQ 100 started the day off soft but then bounced back completing a round trip between 4,440 and 4,370. RSI bouncing around 50 indicates a sideways trend.
US SPX 500 successfully tested support at its 50-day average near 2,078 and 50 on the RSI, bouncing back toward the 2,091 to 2,097 with next upside resistance near 2,100 then 2,112 and more support near 2,085.
UK 100 started to drop back, falling from 6,580 just below 6,600 resistance toward a retest of 6,440 a recent breakout point before rebounding toward 6,520. RSI rolling over indicates upward momentum weakening.
Germany 30 was pounded down again after failing to hold above 9,500 dropping toward 9,290 before regaining its footing and rebounding toward the 9,400 to 9,440 area. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward momentum accelerating.
Gold broke breaking out today, clearing $1,355 which may become support and advancing on $1,370 with next potential resistance at the $1,400 round number before slipping back toward $1.364. RSI getting overbought indicates increased correction possibility but so far trend confirms upward momentum.
Crude Oil WTI stabilized in the $45.70 to $46.20 area above round number and Fibonacci support in the $44.75 to $45.00 zone, then rallied back up into the $46.90 to $47.30 area with next resistance near $48.10 a Fibonacci level. RSI nearing 40 similar to previous recent lows.
US Dollar Index continues to consolidate recent gains between 95.45 and 96.55 with RSI confirming momentum has shifted into neutral for now. Index recently trading near 96.25.
EURUSD started the day under pressure again, sliding back under its 200-day average near $1.1100 toward $1.1050 but bounced right back to retest the average after finding support near $1.1025. Next resistance possible near $1.1150 then $1.1200. RSI between 40 and 50 suggests downward pressure levelling off.
GBPUSD broke down again today. The pair fell below $1.3000 down toward $1.2790 and has climbed all the way back to retest $1.3000 to retest the breakdown point as new resistance before settling back toward the $1.2880 to $1.2960 area.
NZDUSD has been weakening but has stabilized in the $0.7110 to $0.7135 area after establishing a higher low near $0.7070. Fibonacci resistance remains in place near $0.7195.
AUDUSD has regained $0.7500 in a big bounce up off of $0.7400. RSI back above 50 indicates underlying uptrend gaining strength. Initial resistance near $0.7540 then $0.7600.
USDSGD faltered near $1.3570 short of its 50-day average and has dropped back to retest $1.3500 with next potential support near $1.3455 then $1.3410. RSI sitting just under 50 confirms sideways trend.
USDJPY has a big round number support test underway at 100.00 which has held so far with the pair trading between 100.20 and 100.60, recently bouncing into the 101.10 to 101.50 area. RSI oversold suggests potential for a bounce with initial resistance near 102.60. More downside support in place at the June low near 99.00.
GBPJPY dipped below the 130.00 round number but found support near 128.55 and has rallied back up into the 130.20 to 130.90 area a potential bear trap bottom. Oversold RSI indicates potential for a trading rebound.
EURJPY held 110.00 round number support rallying up from 110.50 toward the 112.20 to 112.50 area with next potential resistance near 114.20 the bottom of a previous falling channel. Oversold RSI suggests potential for a trading bounce.
CADJPY bounced off 77.00 toward 78.20 and appears to have completed a double bottom. Initial resistance in place near 79.15.
USDCAD has turned back downward after a peek above the $1.3000 round number and Fibonacci level stalled out near $1.3040 and the pair turned back down toward $1.2960 with next potential support near $1.2900.
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