It’s the start of a new week’ month and quarter for trading so we could see some activity across markets as traders prepare for the new month and prepare for a lot of economic data this week. Today brings Manufacturing PMI reports and a number of significant announcements for Australia.
The Yen finished March under pressure, particularly against USD and a resurgent GBP. EUR, however, has been weakening even faster. NZD has a big test underway today at $0.7000 against USD. Indices are still showing signs of rolling over.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 ran into some resistance near 5,900 dropping back toward 5,770 in a normal trading correction. The index remains above its 5,835 breakout point with next potential resistance in the 5,990 to 6,000 area between a measured move and a round number.
Hong Kong 50 has dropped back into the 24,120 to 24,200 area while RSI falling back toward 50 indicates upward momentum slowing. So far, it remains in an uptrend consolidating between 24,000 and 24,740. Next potential support near 23,780 and the 50-day average.
Japan 225 continues to break down, falling under the 19,000 round number toward 18,950. The index has already broken and retested an uptrend line and 50 on the RSI indicating momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 18,920 then 18,650.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to pause in the 20,660 to 20,750 range holding above its 50-day average while digesting an earlier drop back from 21,000. RSI struggling with 50 suggests a downtrend emerging with next potential support near 20,420 its recent low.
US SPX 500 appears to be coming under distribution with the index and the RSI peaking at lower highs and starting to turn downward again. For the index, resistance drops toward 2,370 from 2,390 with next potential support near 2,352 then 2,340 the 50-day average.
US NDAQ 100 has run into resistance near 5,445 and has started to roll over, falling back into the 5,420 to 5,435 zone with next potential support near 5,400 then 5,345. Lower highs in the RSI indicate upward momentum weakening and a downturn pending.
UK 100 continues to form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top, falling away from 7,400 toward 7,330 with resistance dropping toward 7,370. RSI slipping under 50 indicates momentum turning downward with next potential support between 7,265 a Fibonacci level and 7,285 the 50-day average.
Germany 30 continues to climb, rallying toward the 12,320 to 12,340 range having successfully established higher support near 12,200. Rising RSI indicates upward momentum still increasing but the index has completed a measured move and RSI is approaching overbought territory. Next potential resistance near 12,500.
Gold is consolidating Thursday’s losses at a lower level, pausing near $1,245 after getting slammed down from $1,254. Initial bounce resistance appears near $1,250 with next support possible near $1,230 both Fibonacci levels.
Crude Oil WTI continues to climb, clearing $50.00 and advancing on $50.35 with next potential resistance near $50.70 then the 50-day average near $51.30. RSI regaining 50 confirms momentum turning back upward.
US Dollar Index is holding above 100.00 trading near 100.30 while digesting Thursday’s breakout rally. RSI holding above 50 confirms momentum turning upward. Next potential resistance near 100.50 then 101.00.
EURUSD remains under pressure with the pair falling to test $1.0655 a Fibonacci level, while resistance drops toward $1.0700. RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support near $1.0640 then $1.0600.
GBPUSD continues to form a big head and shoulders base with support moving up toward the 50-day average near $1.2415 and the pair breaking through $1.2500 on its way toward $1.2550. Next potential resistance near $1.2600 then $1.2685. RSI holding 50 and rising indicates increasing accumulation.
NZDUSD is sitting on the $0.7000 round number having dipped down toward $0.6975 where it found some support. RSI still under 50 and lower highs for the pair suggest continuing distribution with next potential support near $0.6920. Initial resistance on a bounce possible near $0.7050.
AUDUSD is still bouncing around between $0.7600 and $0.7700 sitting on its 50-day average near $0.7625 while RSI sitting on 50 confirms a neutral trend. Next support at the 200-day average near $0.7550 with next resistance near $0.7755 the recent high.
USDSGD is trading between $1.3920 and $1.4000 above its 200-day average in what looks like another pause within an ongoing downtrend. RSI steady under 40 indicates continuing distribution.
USDJPY has broken out of a saucer bottom that had formed between 110.00 and 111.20 and is holding above its breakout point trading near 111.60 with next resistance at a Fibonacci level near 112.35. RSI gaining on 50 indicates downward pressure easing and an upturn pending.
GBPJPY is starting to turn back upward continuing its rally up off of 138.00 with support rising toward 139.00 with the pair advancing in 140.00 with next potential resistance near 140.55 the 50-day average then 142.00. RSI peeking back above 50 confirms momentum turning back upward.
EURJPY continues to trend lower falling from 119.80 under 119.00 and on toward 118.70 with next potential support near 118.25 then the 200-day average near 117.75. Falling RSI confirms downward pressure increasing.
USDCAD continues to turn downward, falling toward $1.3300 with resistance dropping toward $1.3340 from $1.3400. RSI falling under 50 signals momentum turning downward once again. Next potential support in the $1.3200 to $1.3240 area between the 50 and 200-day averages.
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