There has been a definite change in capital flows today. Capital has been flowing out of the Us Dollar and defensive havens like gold and particularly JPY. In contrast, risk markets like stock indices led by the technology heavy NADSAQ, and depressed currencies like GBP and CAD have been leading the charge with NZD, AUD and EUR gaining at a more moderate pace.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 successfully tested 5,600 as support at a higher level and appears to be trying to resume its uptrend with RSI back above 50 and the index advancing on 5,680 with support rising toward 5,660. Next potential resistance next 5,725 then 5,800.
Japan 225 found support at a higher low and has regained both its 50-day average and the 19,000 round number, rallying up out of the 18,860 to 18.940 zone up toward 19,080. Next resistance possible near 19,305. RSI needs to regain 50 to confirm an upturn in momentum underway.
Hong Kong 50 is still hanging around the 23,000 round number trading between 22,650 and 23,150 holding well above its 50-day average and where it broke out of a downtrend. RSI indicates a pause underway but also that underlying upward momentum remains intact.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has stopped drifting downward within its 19,700 to 20,000 trading channel rallying up from support near 19,790 back up into the 19,920 to 19,950 area. RSI bouncing up off 50 indicates underlying uptrend resuming following a correction. The 20,000 big round number barrier remains a key point.
US SPX 500 is bumping up against 2,282 resistance having rallied up from 2,266, with initial support rising toward 2,278. RSI is starting to turn upward but has more work to do to call off a head and shoulders top. Next measured resistance on a breakout possible near 2,309.
US NDAQ 100 is breaking out today, driving up out of the 5,065 to 5,075 range through 5,084 and on toward 5,105. Next potential measured resistance on a breakout possible near 5,140 then 5,170.
UK 100 is having an inside day, consolidating Monday’s breakdown below 7,200 between there and 7,100 both round numbers and Fibonacci levels. RSI holding 50 suggests this remains a correction within an uptrend so far. Recent trading near 7,180 up from 7,155 support.
Germany 30 is still trending sideways between 11,445 and 11,700, recently climbing from 11,540 up through 11,600 and on toward 11,640. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading back toward neutral.
Gold continues to trade between $1,200 and $1,218, consolidating recent gains. It has started to roll over a bit with slipping RSI suggesting upward momentum starting to weaken and the price dropping from the high end of the range down through $1,211 a Fibonacci level and on toward $1,207.
Crude Oil WTI continues to trend sideways between $50.40 and $54.20. RSI bouncing between 40 and 60 confirming sideways momentum and that this remains a consolidation phase within a larger uptrend. Recent trading has been between $52.00 and $52.80.
US Dollar Index is testing the 100.00 big round number which has held as support for now with the index rebounding toward 100.30. It remains under distribution with resistance falling toward 100.35 from 100.65. Next support possible near 99.70 then 99.40. RSI under 50 indicates downward momentum intact.
EURUSD has paused to digest recent gains, having encountered resistance near $1.0770 but at the same time holding above $1.0720 a Fibonacci level and recent breakout point. Next potential resistance near $1.0800 with next potential support near $1.0640.
GBPUSD has bounced around quite a bit today between $1.2420 and $1.2540, recently trading near the $1.2500 round number. An early retrenchment was contained by the 50-day average keeping its underlying uptrend intact. Rising RSI indicates underlying uptrend still intact through this digestion period. Next upside resistance near $1.2685 a Fibonacci level.
NZDUSD continues to climb, clearing its previous high near $0.7235 to break out of a base and confirm the start of a new uptrend with next potential resistance near $0.7300 then $0.7400. Recent trading in the $0.7240 to $0.7270 area. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum accelerating.
AUDUSD remains under accumulation with support rising from near $0.7500 toward $0.7550 and next potential resistance near $0.7615 then $0.7655.
USDSGD held $1.4155 support and has bounced back up toward $1.4220 but with resistance emerging at another lower high, and the RSI under 50 and falling, the pair still appears to be under distribution. More resistance in place near $1.4260 with next downside support near $1.4085 both Fibonacci retracement levels.
USDJPY successfully retested 112.35 support, completing a short-term double bottom. The pair has rallied back up to retest 114.05 Fibonacci resistance with initial support climbing toward 113.70. Next upside tests possible near 114.70 the 50-day average then the 115.00 round number.
GBPJPY is breaking out today, clearing 142.25 and its 50-day average then consolidating gains at a higher level. RSI retaking 50 confirms momentum turning back upward. Next potential resistance near 144.00 then 145.30 with next support at the 200-day average near 140.75
EURJPY continues to tally up off the bottom of its 121.00 to 124.00 trading range recently trading near 122.10 with next resistance near 122.90. RSI regaining 50 indicates momentum neutral to potentially turning back upward.
USDCAD successfully retested $1.3300 Fibonacci resistance following a breakdown into the lower half of a $1.2975 to $1.3565 channel. It has since resumed its downtrend, diving into the $1.3110 to $1.3180 range. RSI faltering near 50 and turning lower indicates momentum turning increasingly downward.
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