USD’s relentless drive higher and Alcoa’s earnings miss has taken its toll on markets today. US indices are all starting to break down led by the S&P 500 which completed a head and shoulders top. Asia Pacific indices are also rolling over. In currency markets, GBP and EUR are under the most pressure while AUD, NZD and SGD also retreat. On the other hand, JPY has started to rebound.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is rolling over and appears poised for a breakdown. The index has dropped away from 5,500 toward 5,430 and its 50-day average while the RSI tests 50. Breakdowns would signal the start of a new downtrend with next support possible near 5,400 then 5,365.
Japan 225 tried to break out over 17,000 but failed and has started to roll over, falling back toward 16,815 a Fibonacci level with more support possible near 16,680 and its 50-day average. RSI stalling near 60 suggests upward momentum weakening.
Hong Kong 50 is coming off a big negative reversal where it peeked above 24,00 then was slammed down toward 23.350 with resistance falling toward 23,410. RSI back under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 23,200 then 23,000.
North American and European Indices
US 30 faltered at its 50-day average near 18,360 once again and has turned downward, diving back under 18,100 and approaching the 18,000 round number a channel bottom with next support near 17,915 a 23% retracement of its early 2016 advance. RSI falling away from 50 confirms momentum turning downward.
US NDAQ 100 failed to get through 4,900 and has started to roll over, dropping back toward 4,800 and its 50-day average. RSI falling under 50 signals momentum turning downward. Next potential support on a breakdown near 4,740. . RSI indicates upward momentum levelling off. Initial pullback support possible near 4,880 then 4,830.
US SPX 500 is breaking down today, taking out trend/neckline support near 2,140 to complete a head and shoulders top. RSI falling away confirms a downturn underway. Next potential support near 2,125 then 2,110 a trend support line then a 23% retracement of level.
UK 100 keeps trending higher, clearing 7,100 and testing 7,130 but an overbought RSI and a negative divergence suggest upward momentum may be peaking and a correction possible with initial support near 7,050 then 7,000 and 6,925.
Germany 30’s latest upswing ran out of gas at a lower high near 10,670. The index has resumed its downtrend, falling back toward 10,550 and its 50-day average with next potential support near 10,500 then 10,445. RSI rolling over near 50 confirms upward momentum fading.
Gold is trying to build support above $1,250 after testing $1,240 last week, but it’s latest rebound attempt was contained by its 200-day average near $1,262 keeping its recent downtrend intact. RSI oversold indicates potential for a trading bounce or a rest stop.
Crude Oil WTI is holding above the $50.00 round number while remaining stuck below $51.40 channel resistance similar to the June peak. Next test on a breakout possible near $52.80 with next support on a breakdown near $49.00. RSI indicates upward momentum pausing.
US Dollar Index remains in an uptrend, trading up toward 97.70 with support rising toward 96.80. Next potential resistance tests appear near 97.70 then 98.40, with more support near 96.50. RSI getting overbought suggests potential for a correction at some point.
EURUSD is breaking down again and coming under increased downward pressure with RSI under 50 and falling. The pair has dropped under $1.1100 toward $1.1050 from $1.1140 with next potential support near the $1.1000 round number.
GBPUSD remains under heavy pressure, failing to stabilize in the $1.2250 to $1.2320 area and diving toward $1.2090 before rebounding toward $1.2150. It remains within a wide $1.2000 to $1.2625 range established last week and could retest the low end of that range. Very oversold RSI suggests potential for a trading bounce with initial resistance near $1.2440.
NZDUSD is breaking down again, taking out $0.7100 and dropping toward the $0.70540 to $0.7080 area. Falling RSI confirms downward pressure increasing. Although oversold territory looms, next potential support appears near $0.7015 a Fibonacci test and the $0.7000 round number.
AUDUSD has fallen back under its 50-day average near $0.7600 and the 50 level on its RSI indicator signalling a downswing underway within a $0.7430 to $0.7730 trading range. Next potential support near $0.7535 then the $0.7500 round number.
USDSGD continues its breakout, advancing on $1.3800 while support rises toward $1.3770 from $1.3720. RSI confirms upward momentum increasing but nearing overbought territory. Next resistance possible near $1.3835 then $1.3885.
USDJPY continues to encounter resistance near 104.00 with more possible near the 105.00 round number. The pair has dropped back toward 103.20 from 103.80 as it corrects recent gains with more support in place near 102.90 then the 50-day average near 101.70.
GBPJPY is getting hammered again diving from near 128.00 down toward a test of the 125.00 round number where support has held so far with more possible near 124.70. Initial rebound resistance possible near 126.00.
EURJPY continues to swing back and forth within a 112.00 to 116.00 trading channel, recently dropping back toward the middle and its 50-day average after failing to break through the top. RSI back under 50 confirms a downswing underway.
USDCAD continues to climb, advancing on $1.3270 from $1.3190 as it bounces around between a higher low near $1.3140 and $1.3310 Fibonacci resistance. Support rises toward $1.3250.
USDMXN is digesting Monday’s selloff and breakdown through 19.00 trading near 18.88 and its 50-day average. RSI under 50 signals momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 18.80 then 18.56 a 38% retracement of its previous advance. Next resistance possible at 19.10 the 23% retracement level.
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