Forex markets remain active with a number of markets staging trading corrections. Tuesday’s break points have been holding on retests indicating that even though we are seeing a correction today, the technical trend signals sent earlier in the week remain intact. Hong Kong is breaking out today while Japan is on the rebound indicating renewed interest in some Asia Pacific indices.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 remains in a slump, with resistance falling toward 5,670 from 5,740 and the index trading near 5,660 with next potential support near 5,600 then the 50-day average near 5,540. RSI testing 50 which could confirm a downturn or indicate overbought conditions easing.
Japan 225 is on the rebound, bouncing up off 18,625 support back up through its 50-day average near 18,760 and on into the 18,820 to 18,940 range. It needs to retake 19,000, however, to call off its recent breakdown.
Hong Kong 50 is breaking out today, clearing the 23,000 round number to complete a base and signal the start of a new uptrend. The index has advanced on 23,150 resistance with its next potential upside test near with next potential resistance near a measured 23,370.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to drift downward within a 19,700 to 20,000 trading channel, today falling from near 19,835 toward 19,790 with next support near 19,770. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn pending.
US SPX 500 is sending mixed signals trading near 2,270 below 2,282 resistance and above 2,252 support. Falling RSI indicates upward momentum weakening and distribution emerging but higher lows in the index suggest continued accumulation. We could see a big move in one direction or the other once this resolves.
US NDAQ 100 continues to pause in the 5,000 to 5,070 range. For now this looks like a normal consolidation phase within an ongoing uptrend particularly with RSI indicating momentum going sideways. Next measured resistance possible near 5,140 with next potential support at the 50-day average near 4,900.
UK 100 has paused near the bottom of Tuesday’s selloff range trading in the 7,220 to 7,250 range digesting a drop down from 7,320. RSI back under 70 from overbought indicates a downward correction underway. Next potential support near 7,200 a round number and 23% Fibonacci retracement of its previous advance.
Germany 30 is still trending sideways in a channel between 11,445 and 11,700 recently trading between 11,525 and 11,600 with next support near 11,500. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading back into neutral.
Gold has dropped back form near $1,214 through $1,211 a Fibonacci level and back toward $1,206 holding above $1,200-$1,205 support in what so far looks like a normal trading correction to digest recent gains and a slightly overbought RSI. Next potential resistance near $1,220 then $1,230 another retracement test with next support near $1,188.
Crude Oil WTI continues to bounce around a lot in a range between $50.30 and $54.20. WTI has been falling back since a Tuesday rally peaked just short of $53.50 with the price falling from near $52.20 down into the $50.90 to $51.40 area with next potential support near $50.40 then $50.00.
US Dollar Index is having an inside day digesting Tuesday’s big selloff from 101.50 toward 100.30 by bouncing back up toward 101.00. RSI still trending downward indicates continued distribution. Next potential support near 100.00.
EURUSD’s latest rally appears to have run out of gas. The pair is dropping back from $1.0720 toward $1.0650 both Fibonacci levels with next potential support at the 50-day average near $1.0585. Resistance has dropped toward $1.0680 as initial support caves with more possible near $1.0700.
GBPUSD ran into resistance at its 50-day average near $1.2400 and has tumbled back toward $1.2270 with resistance emerging near $1.2300 and $1.2340. This decline seems steep but the pair continues to trade well above the $1.2020 level it launched off of Tuesday. Next pullback possible in the $1.2200 to $1.2230 area.
NZDUSD has given back much of the previous day’s gains, slumping back from near $0.7120 toward $1.0730 with resistance falling toward $0.7170. It remains in an upswing through this common retest as long as it holds its 200-day average near $0.7080.
AUDUSD has dropped back from near $0.7570 toward a retest of its $0.7500 breakout point, round number and 200-day average. This has held so far has held confirming an uptrend has started. More support in place near $0.7445 with next resistance near $0.7620.
USDSGD is bouncing back today, rallying up off $1.4155 through $1.4255 a Fibonacci level and on toward $1.4290. So far this rebound has been contained by the 50-day average near $1.4315 with more resistance near $1.4330. RSI remains below 50 suggesting this as an upward correction within a broader downtrend.
USDJPY is retesting 114.00, its recent breakdown point, a Fibonacci level and its 50-day average breakdown point as resistance, having bounced up from 112.40 a Fibonacci level with support rising toward 113.30. RSI suggests downward pressure may be easing temporarily but the overall trend remains downward for now.
GBPJPY is retesting its 140.00 round number breakdown point which has contained a bounce so far but if it fails, next resistance may not appear until the 141.00 to 142.25 where its 50 and 200-day averages plus a Fibonacci test cluster. RSI suggests downward pressure starting to ease. Support rises toward 139.50 from 138.80.
EURJPY found some support near 1120.45 with more possible near 120.00 and has bounced back up through 121.00 a Fibonacci level on its way toward 121.60. It continues to trade below its 122.00 breakdown point and below 50 on the RSI indicating that its downturn remains intact through tis trading correction.
USDCAD continues to bounce around its 200-day average near $1.3090 bouncing up from $1.3050 toward $1.3110. Next potential resistance near $1.3195 with next potential support in the $1.2975 to $1.3000 range near a Fibonacci level and round number. RSI holding 30 suggests downward pressure may have peaked for now.
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