Major indices have been rolling over again, but the big technical action so far today has been in currencies. Capital has been moving back into USD following the FOMC’s hawkish hike, sparking breakdowns and bearish reversals in a number of other currencies including gold, EUR, NZD, SGD and AUD, JPY has come under particular pressure, losing ground to USD, GBP and EUR.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 failed to hold above its 50-day average near 5,815 and has turned back downward, potentially completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top. The index has dropped back under 5,800 toward 5,740 testing a Fibonacci level. Next potential downside support near 7,675 the pattern’s neckline, and the 200-day average 5,615.
Japan 225 is sending mixed signals. It appears to be forming a descending triangle above 19,755, but it bounced off that Fibonacci level back up toward 19,900. Meanwhile a bigger symmetrical triangle continues to form while the RSI holds 50 suggesting this could be a pause within a longer term uptrend. A break over 20,000 would signal an upturn while a break under 19,750 would signal a downturn.
Hong Kong 50 continues to form a rounded top. The index continues to fall away from 26,000 with resistance falling toward 25,825 and the index falling toward 25,580. Initial support appears near 25,495 its previous breakout point followed by the 50-day average and 23% retracement level near 25,010.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is starting to fall back after touching a new all-time high Wednesday. Having met resistance near 21,400, the index has dropped back toward 21,340. RSI back under 70 indicates a correction starting. Net potential support near 21,260 then 21,155 a 23% retracement of the upleg that started in April.
US SPX 500 is rolling downward following a second failure to hold above 2,440 resistance. A negative RSI divergence and trend toward 50 indicates weakening upward momentum and a downturn pending. 2,418 support has held so far. Next support on a breakdown appears near 2,405 then the 50-day average near 2,394, all Fibonacci levels.
US NDAQ 100 has resumed its downtrend after failures to retake 5,785 and 50 on the RSI confirm recent breakdowns. The index has dropped into the 5,650 to 5,670 zone with next potential support at the 50-day average near 5,630 then 5,580 a 23% retracement of the previous uptrend.
UK 100 is selling off today, falling from 7,490 down toward 7,380 where it held the neckline of a head and shoulders top and its 50-day average before bouncing back toward 7,420. RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum turning increasingly downward. Next potential support near 7,305 then 7,200.
Germany 30 is breaking down today after a failure to hold above 12,900 a bearish shooting star candle and a negative RSI divergence combined to indicate a buying climax yesterday. The index has dropped under 12,700, taking out a trend support line and signalling a downturn with next potential support near 12,635 then 12,525. RSI testing 50 where a breakdown would confirm a downturn in momentum.
Gold is breaking down today, taking out $1,260 and also $1,256 a Fibonacci level. RSI falling under 50 confirms a downturn underway. Next potential support appears at the 200-day average near $1,240 then $1,230.
WTI crude oil remains under pressure, confirming its breakdown below $45.00 trading between $44.40 and $44.70. Next potential support appears near $43.50 the May low. Falling RSI indicates increasing downward momentum.
US Dollar Index continues its bounce up off the bottom of a 96.45 to 97.65 trading range, regaining 97.00 and advancing on 97.45. RSI approaching 50 from below indicates downward pressure easing and an upturn pending. Next potential resistance on a breakout possible near 98.00 then the 50-day average near 98.40.
EURUSD failed to break through $1.1290, completing a double top and has turned back downward, breaking $1.1200 and falling toward $1.1150. RSI trending down toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn pending. Next potential support near $1.1118 a 23% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance then $1.1010.
GBPUSD continues its big bounce up off of $1.2635 with support moving up toward $1.2700 and the pair jumping up toward $1.2770. Initial resistance possible near $1.2790 then the 50-day average near $1.2820. RSI indicates downward pressure starting to ease a bit.
NZDUSD appears to be peaking with a bearish engulfing candle indicating a downturn following a buying climax. RSI back under 70 from overbought indicates a downward correction underway. Resistance has emerged near $0.7260 with next potential support near $0.7200 then $0.7160.
AUDUSD is still in an uptrend above $0.7535, but appears to be running out of gas near $0.7590 after running into resistance near $0.7625. RSI suggests potential for a pause for consolidation within an ongoing uptrend.
USDSGD has turned right back upward, rallying for $1.3750 toward $1.3850, indicating yesterday drop toward $1.3710 was a selling climax and a head fake. RSI gaining on 50 indicates downward pressure fading and an upturn pending. Next resistance possible near $1.3850, $1.3870 and $1.3890.
USDJPY is breaking out today, blasting up from 109.25 through 110.00 then 110.60 and on toward 111.00 where it has been bumping up against its 50-day average. The RSI, meanwhile, is bumping up against 50. Breakouts would signal the start of a new uptrend with next potential resistance near 111.75 and 112.15.
GBPJPY is breaking out of a base today, rallying up off its 200-day average near 139.00 through 140.00 and 140.40 on its way toward 141.50. RSI approaching 50 form below indicates downward pressure easing and an upturn pending. Next potential resisance near 14185 a Fibonacci level then the 50-day average near 142.40.
EURJPY is testing 123.75 downtrend resistance having rallied up off 122.50. A break out from here would call off a descending triangle pattern. RSI regaining 50 signals momentum turning upward.
USDCAD has bounced up off of $1.3175 toward $1.3300 correcting an oversold RSI. Support has moved up toward $1.3225 and it may be forming a bullish Morning Star candle pattern but needs to break through resistance $1.3300 to $1.3340 area which includes a Fibonacci level and the 200-day average to confirm the start of a new uptrend.
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