GBP pairs were highly volatile to finish last week in the wake of the flash crash kicked off by Cable breaking $1.2500 which has become resistance and the after effects may continue to be felt into the new trading week. USD trading was active but mixed between the uneventful nonfarm payrolls report and Sunday night’s (US time) Presidential debate. Markets continue to price in a Clinton win so a surprise stronger performance by Trump (expectations for him are really low now) could impact trading particularly in USDMXN.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 looks like its recent advance is getting tired, still struggling with 4,500 resistance but holding its 50-day average near 5,435 so far. RSI suggests upward momentum stalling. Next support in a breakdown near 5,415 then 5,365.
Hong Kong 50 continues to struggle with 24,000 resistance while a lower high in the RSI suggests upward momentum weakening. Index has dropped back from near 23,960 toward 23,780 with next potential support near 23,410 a Fibonacci level.
Japan 225 has started to roll over and fall away from 17,000 resistance, dropping from near 16,900 back under 16,815 a Fibonacci level with next support possible near 16,740 then 16,575 the 50 and 200-day averages.
North American and European Indices
US 30 remains stuck in a trading channel between the 18,000 round number and the 50-day average near 18,400 recently trading between 18,160 and 18,320. RSI sitting on 50 confirms sideways trend.
US NDAQ 100 continues to bounce around within a 4,800 to 4,900 trading range recently trading just above the middle near 4,860. RSI suggests upward momentum levelling off.
US SPX 500 is trading just below 2,160 with resistance in place at its 50-day average near 2,170 as it bounces around in a 2,140 to 2,180 trading range.
UK 100 remains in an uptrend holding 7,000 round number support and advancing on 7,080 with next resistance possible near 7,130. RSI levelling off near 70 suggests it may need to pause to digest recent gains.
Germany 30 is rolling over again, falling back from a lower high near 10,635 back toward the 10,500 level with next potential support on a breakdown possible near 10,450 then 10,300. RSI around 50 indicates continued range bound swings up and down.
Gold continues to trade between $1,250 Fibonacci support and its 200-day average near $1,260. A dip down toward $1,240 quickly recovered may have been a bear trip washout. RSI deeply oversold suggesting potential for a trading bounce which has yet to materialize.
Crude Oil WTI failed to hold above $50.00 channel and round number resistance with a run up to $50.40 failing and the price dropping back into the $49.20 to $49.60 area. RSI slipping suggests a trading correction starting with next support near $48.80 then $48.00.
US Dollar Index is flying to the upside driving through 0.9630 and spiking up toward 0.9700 having traded up toward 97.20. RSI getting overbought but upward momentum still increasing. Measured resistance possible near 0.9830.
EURUSD broke down Friday, taking out trend support and completing a symmetrical triangle to the downside by falling under $1.1160 and its 200-day average but bounced off of $1.1100 and finished the week near $1.1200 and its 50-day average. RS bouncing between 40 and 60 indicates a sideways trend continues.
EURGBP has settled back toward the 90.00 round number after spiking up from near 0.8800 toward 0.9300 overnight. RSI getting extremely overbought so a trading correction possible at some point. Recently trading in the 0.8940 to 0.9040 area with more resistance emerging near 0.9100.
GBPUSD plunged after taking out $1.2500 diving down under $1.2000 briefly before bouncing back toward $1.2450. Initial support has moved back up toward $1.2390 then $1.2325. It would need to retake $1.2500 to call off the new downleg.
NZDUSD remains under pressure having retested its $0.7195 breakdown point as Fibonacci resistance and falling toward $0.7160 with next support possible near $0.7110 then the $0.7000 to $0.7020 area near a round number and Fibonacci test. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward pressure increasing.
AUDUSD is still rolling over with the pair trading under its 50 day average near $0.7620 and the RSI slipping under 50 signalling a downturn in momentum with next potential support near $0.7550 then the $0.7500 round number.
USDSGD continues to climb, building on its breakout over $1.3700 and its 200-day average by advancing on $1.3760 with next potential resistance in the $1.3840 to $1.3880 area. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum increasing.
USDJPY continues to encounter resistance near 104.00 and appears to be starting to roll over, sliding back toward 103.00 with next potential correction support near 102.65 then 101.75 the 50-day average and recent breakout point.
GBPJPY broke down severely Friday taking out 128.60 causing a triple bottom to fail and then bouncing back to retest that level as new resistance following a bounce up off 124.70. Initial support near 127.90 and 127.30.
EURJPY remains stuck in a sideways trading channel between 112.00 and 116.00. The pair has dropped back toward 115.00 a Fibonacci level and round number after failing to break out of the top of this range. Next support in a downswing possible near 114.00 and the 50-day average.
USDCAD has cleared $1.3250 to complete an ascending triangle and is advancing toward a test of Fibonacci resistance near $1.3310. RSI confirms upward momentum increasing. Support moves up toward $1.3260 from the 200-day average near $1.3215.
USDMXN finished last week trading between 19.20 and 19.36 holding above 19.10 23% Fibonacci retracement support. RSI stabilizing near 50 suggests the recent selloff may have been a trading correction within an ongoing uptrend. Initial resistance possible near 19.52 then 19.65 and 20.00.
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