Friday saw a number of significant technical moves. Both EURUSD and US NDAQ 100 failed to break through key round numbers and sake, with the EUR taking the bigger plunge. In currency action, CAD broke out while AUD continued to test 80 cents. NZD, on the other hand continues to sink. With the RBNZ actively talking its dollar down one has to wonder if the RBA will follow suit at this week’s meeting.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 continues to climb within its 5,655 to 5,800 trading range with support moving up toward 5,700 and the index trading near 5,750. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms a sideways trend.
Hong Kong 50 is still struggling with 28,180 resistance although it has been holding above the 28,000 round number for now. A flattening RSI and a negative divergence signal slowing upward momentum. Next support possible near 27,880.
Japan 225 continues its rebound with support moving up toward 19,600 and the index advancing on 19,710. RSI moving back above 50 confirms momentum turning back upward. Next potential resistance near 19,795 a Fibonacci level then 19,870 the 50-day average and 20,000.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has peeked back above 22,000 as it continues to swing back upward out of a correction. The index trending higher above its 50-day average and RSI climbing up from 50 indicate increasing accumulation. Support moves up toward 21,980 with next resistance near 22,185 the August peak.
US SPX 500 is taking another run at 2,482 resistance with the index trading near 2,476 and support moving up toward 2,470. Next potential tests on a breakout appear near 2,490 then 2,500. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum increasing.
US NDAQ 100 peeked above the 6,000 big round number briefly, trading up close to 6,020 before sliding back under toward 5,990 in what could be a head fake and double top. A negative RSI divergence suggests slowing upward momentum. Initial pullback support near 5,940 then 5,900. Should it continue upward at some point, measured moves suggest next potential resistance in the 6,225 to 6,250 area.
UK 100 continues its upswing within a 7,300 to 7,500 trading channel, advancing on 7,455 with support in place at the 50-day average near 7,405. RSI back above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum accelerating. Next resistance possible near 7,480 then 7,555.
Germany 30 is on the rebound, climbing up off a successful test of its 200-day average near 12,000. Support moves up toward 12,100 with the index advancing on 12,150. Next potential resistance appears in the 12,225 to 12,240 area.
Gold continues to advance, with support moving up toward $1,318 from $1,300 and the price breaking through resistance in the $1,320 to $1,325 area in an advance on $1,328. Next resistance possible near $1,338. An overbought RSI suggests gold may need to take a break sometime but for now it confirms the uptrend.
WTI crude oil ran into resistance at a lower high near $47.00 and its 50-day average and has dropped back toward $46.80. RSI still below 50 confirms broader distribution remains intact for now. Initial support possible near $46.50 then $45.50. Initial resistance on an upturn possible near $47.75 then $48.30.
US Dollar Index has stabilized near 92.75. A Morning Star base remains in place with initial support near 92.00 but resistance near 93.00 and 93.30 plus an RSI stuck below 50 indicate it’s more likely to consolidate in the near term.
EURUSD tried to retake $1.2000 but failed and instead turned downward and plunged into the $1.1850 to $1.1875 area. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn pending. Next potential support near $1.1840 then $1.1740.
GBPUSD continues to form a rounded bottom to indicate that the recent downswing has ended and its underlying uptrend has resumed. Support moves up toward $1.2900 while RSI regaining 50 confirms the upturn. Initial resistance possible near $1.2970 where the 50-day average and a Fibonacci level converge, then the $1.3000 round number.
NZDUSD remains under distribution, unable to retake $0.7200. The pair has dropped into the $0.7150 to $0.7170 area while the RSI continues to fall away form 50 indicating increasing downward pressure. Next support tests possible near $0.7130 then $0.7100 a 62% retracement of its previous uptrend.
AUDUSD continues to bump up against $0.8000 resistance and remains under accumulation with support rising toward $0.7920 and the RSI above 50 and climbing. Next potential resistance in place in the $0.8050 to $0.8065 zone.
USDSGD successfully retested $1.3500 round number support to complete a double bottom. The pair has bounced back up toward $1.3565 with initial resistance near $1.3615. A positive RSI divergence indicates downward pressure starting to weaken.
USDJPY ran into Fibonacci resistance near 110.60 and failed to retake 50 on the RSI indicating that the recent rally was more of a trading bounce than a true upturn. The pair has dropped back toward 110.00 before bouncing back toward 110.25. Next support in a breakdown possible near 109.45 then 109.00.
GBPJPY continues to steadily recover, with the pair retaking its 200-day average and the RSI retaking 50 to signal an upturn in momentum. The pair has advanced on 142.85 with next potential resistance near 143.30 a Fibonacci level then the 50-day average near 144.10.
EURJPY is still falling back from 131.85 resistance trading near 130.85. A lower high in the RSI confirms upward momentum weakening. So far the pair remains above 130.00 but if the round number fails, next support may appear at the 50-day average near 129.50.
USDCAD broke down in a big way Friday, taking out $1.2425 to call off a double bottom and signal the start of a new downleg. RSI falling away form 50 confirms downward momentum accelerating again. The pair has dropped int o the $1.2340 to $1.2420 area with initial support and resistance near $1.2360 and $1.2400.
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