The huge seasonal rally we’ve seen this year appears to be nearing exhaustion. Double tops forming in multiple indices including Australia 200, Hong Kong 50, US 30 and US SPX 500 plus a head and shoulders top in the UK 100 combine to suggest that the tide of momentum may be starting to turn. In other action, energy and resource currencies remain under pressure with WTI under $50.00, AUDUSD + CADUSD under $0.7500 and NZDUSD under $0.7000.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 continues to struggle with resistance near 5,960 and may be forming a double top. RSI appears to be peaking at a lower high, a sign of slowing upward momentum. Initial support possible in a pullback near 5,900 then 5,835 a recent breakout point.
Japan 225 is bouncing around between 19,180 and 19,320 as it starts to consolidate a big rally. It's uptrend remains intact above support near 19,000 then 18,835 with next resistance near 19,500 then 19,695 the top of a trading channel.
Hong Kong 50 ran into resistance near 24,750 and appears to be forming a double top. The index has dropped back toward 24,640 with next potential support near 24,535 then 24,500. RSI, however, suggests upward momentum still building so if it does manage to breakout, the 25,000 round number could be challenged.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is holding steady near the 21,000 round number trading between 20,970 and 21,010. It remains below 21,130 and a double top may be forming. RSI confirms upward momentum levelling off but so far this looks like a pause within an uptrend.
US SPX 500 may be forming a double top, having run into resistance at 2,400 and dropping back toward 2,385 with next support possible near 2,370 then the 50-day average near 2,360. RSI suggests upward momentum levelling off.
US NDAQ 100 has paused near 5,560 to digest recent gains and work off a slightly overbought RSI. Initial support has moved up toward 5,535 from 5,480 with next potential measured resistance near 5,600.
UK 100 appears to be resuming its downtrend, falling back under 7,260 the neckline of a head and shoulders top and sliding toward 7,245 with next potential support near 7,200 then 7,145. RSI failed to retake 50 and has turned back downward confirming distribution.
Germany 30 has dropped back toward 12,445 as it continues to quietly roll over after running into resistance near 12,500. A negative RSI divergence suggests upward momentum slowing. It remains in an uptrend overall though, holding well above 12,380 its recent breakout point.
Gold is trading between $1,260 and $1,270 with next resistance near $1,280 and next support near $1,250. The price has been sliding for 2 weeks and the RSI is testing 50 where a breakdown would confirm a downturn in momentum. On the other hand, the 50-day average continues to creep toward a golden cross of the 200-day average.
Crude Oil WTI may be getting washed out. The day started off with black gold under heavy pressure continuing the decline that started with a failure to overcome $50.00 round number resistance. The price broke its 200-day average near 48.65 and plunged toward $48.00 but then picked up support at a higher low and bounced back. This has created a bullish hammer candle and may also be seen as a bear trap washout. Initial resistance possible near $49.00 then $49.80.
US Dollar Index continues to stabilize in the 98.60 to 99.20 area and may be forming a double bottom. A breakout could fill in a recent downward gap with next resistance near 99.55. RSI suggests downward momentum levelling off.
EURUSD is showing signs of peaking for now, encountering resistance near $1.0945 a Fibonacci level and bouncing around in the $1.0860 to $1.0930 range recently trading near $1.0880. Next support looks possible at a Fibonacci cluster near $1.0830. RSI indicates a correction starting to digest an overbought RSI
GBPUSD continues to climb, retesting $1.2900 resistance which could end in a double top or a breakout that could challenge the $1.3000 round number Support rises toward $1.2870 from $1.2800. RSI confirms upward momentum but is approaching overbought territory.
NZDUSD remains under pressure with the pair trading below $0.6900 near $0.6875 with next potential support near $0.68509 and $0.6800. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum increasing. Initial rebound resistance near $0.6915.
AUDUSD remains under distribution with resistance dropping toward the $0.7500 round number and the pair trading near $0.7470. Initial support appears at a Fibonacci cluster in the $0.7445 to $0.7465 area followed by $0.7390. RSI under 50 indicates ongoing distribution.
USDSGD is still bouncing around between $1.3900 and $1.4000 and appears to be forming a double bottom base. A breakout over $1.4000 and 50 on the RSI would signal the start of an uptrend with next potential resistance near $1.4030 the 50-day average then $1.4080 a Fibonacci level.
USDJPY shot up toward 111.80 where it smacked into its 50-day average and has dropped back into the 111.00 to 111.50 area. RSI, meanwhile, suggests upward momentum may be levelling off. Next resistance possible near 112.20 with next support near 110.65 both Fibonacci levels.
GBPJPY continues to climb, but at a slower pace and could pause at some point with RSI getting overbought. The pair has advanced into the 143.10 to 143.90 area from 142.40 with next resistance possible near 144.85.
EURJPY seems to be stabilizing near 121.00 with a 120.00 to 122.00 channel potentially emerging. The pair appears to be resting to digest a big rally up off of 115.00.
USDCAD has encountered resistance near $1.3650 and appears to be levelling off dropping back toward $1.3620. A doji candle suggests bulls and bears coming back into balance after a big rally. Initial downside support levels appear near $1.3570 then $1.3530 and $1.3500. RSI touched overbought territory and has started to back off indicating a correction possible.
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