Chart Signals: Bull traps for USD Index and NASDAQ suggest bearish reversals possible

It looks like the US Dollar rally of recent weeks may have peaked with the greenback showing signs of a buying climax and falling back enabling other currencies like gold, AUD, NZD and JPY top rebound. Another flash drop in GBP also appears to have come and gone not as bad as the previous one. The NASDAQ tried to break out and failed, potentially completing a bull trap top and signalling exhaustion for US stocks.

It looks like the US Dollar rally of recent weeks may have peaked with the greenback showing signs of a buying climax and falling back enabling other currencies like gold, AUD, NZD and JPY top rebound. Another flash drop in GBP also appears to have come and gone not as bad as the previous one. The NASDAQ tried to break out and failed, potentially completing a bull trap top and signalling exhaustion for US stocks. 

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 successfully retested 5,380 support and has rebounded toward 5,440 but it needs to retake 5,445 to confirm an upturn with next potential resistance near 5,500 then 5,600. RSI sitting on 50 confirms sideways trend. 

Japan 225 ran into resistance near 17,428 a Fibonacci level and has slumped back toward 17,330 in what looks like a normal trading correction with more support possible near 17,100. RSI indicates upward momentum slowing but trend intact. 

Hong Kong 50 ran into resistance at a lower high near 23,600 and has started to retreat again, falling toward the 23,460-23,520 area with next potential support in a pullback near 23,185. A lower high in the RSI suggests momentum turning downward. 


North American and European Indices

US 30 continues to bounce around between 18,000 and its 50-day average near 18,360 recently sliding from 18,240 toward 18,160. Lower highs and RSI stuck below 50 indicate distribution. 

US NDAQ 100 tried to break out over 4,900 but ran into resistance short of the 5,000 round number. The index has reversed downward toward 4,890 completing what may be a bull trap peak or buying climax. Next support in place near 4,850. 

US SPX 500 tried to retake 2,150 the rising neckline of a head and shoulders top, and failed again, keeping the bearish pattern intact. RSI failing to retake 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next support near 2,142 then 2,124 and the flat neckline near 2,100.  

UK 100 is holding steady just above the 7,000 round number as it continues to consolidate recent gains in a 6,925 to 7,110 channel. A head and shoulders top forming in the RSI suggests upward momentum may be peaking. 

Germany 30 failed to clear 10,800 resistance again with more possible near 10,880. RSI indicates upward momentum still increasing, but so far the index has dropped back into the 10,740 to 10,770 area with more support possible near 10,660. 


Commodities 

Gold has regained its 200-day average near $1,268 as it continues to base build, advancing on $1,276 with next potential resistance near $1,274 then $1,282. RSI trending up toward 50 confirms downward pressure easing. 

Crude Oil WTI continues to consolidate recent gains in the $49.00 to $51.30 range recently drifting back under $50.00. RSI falling away from 70 suggests upward momentum easing back toward neutral. 


FX 

US Dollar Index peeked above 99.00 then dropped back toward 98.60 in what looks like a bearish shooting star candle. RSI really overbought and a double top suggests potential for a correction growing with initial support possible near 98.30 then 97.65. 

EURUSD bounced up from near $1.0860 toward $1.0900 in a trading bounce to ease oversold conditions. It would need to retake $1.0930 and really likely $1.1000 to call off its current downtrend. Current trading looks like a normal rest stop with next potential support near $1.0800. 

GBPUSD is having another volatile day within its $1.2080 to $1.2400 range. Cable started out under pressure, breaking a symmetrical triangle to the downside, finding support near $1.2115 then rebounding toward $1.2200. RSI near oversold but rolling over suggests choppy base building continues but a retest of $1.2000 can’t be ruled out. 


NZDUSD has bounced up off of $0.7105 toward $0.7175 but it needs to retake $0.7195 a Fibonacci level and 50 on the RSI to call off its current downtrend. 

AUDUSD is starting to turn upward again having established a higher low near $0.7600 and its 50-day average with channel resistance still in place near $0.7725. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying accumulation trend intact. 

USDSGD appears to be rolling over, dropping back from $1.3960 toward $1.3890 to retest a recent breakout point with next support possible near $1.3840. RSI rolling back under 70 confirms a trading correction starting. 

USDCNH has paused near 6.7880, dipping back under 6.7800. Extremely overbought RSI suggests potential for a correction back toward 6,7525 initially a 23% retracement of its recent uptrend.  

USDJPY took a run at the 105.00 round number but faltered and has turned back downward, sliding toward 104.20 with more support possible near 104.00 then 103.20. RSI indicates upward momentum levelling off so technical signals are mixed at the moment. 

GBPJPY is still hanging around 127.00 in a 126.60 to 128.00 range below 128.55 resistance. RSI slowly rising off 30 indicates base building continues. 

EURJPY is sending mixed signals as it bounces around in a channel between 112.00 and 116.00. It recently faltered short of the 114.00 midpoint but higher lows suggest renewed accumulation. RSI holding 40 suggests an uptrend emerging. 

USDCAD is retesting $1.3310 a Fibonacci level and breakout point as new support after running into resistance near $1.3390. RSI topping out near 60 again suggests upward momentum may be nearing a peak. Next support possible near $1.3280.