USD and JPY rallied to finish last week putting pressure on other currencies. We already saw NZDUSD fall under $0.7000 and USDSGD breakout over $1.4000 and today b rings two more big support tests with AUDUSD near $0.7500 and GBPJPY near 137.00. Gold popped then fall back forming a shooting star candle Friday, so we could see a battle for direction today.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 is still stuck in a holding pattern, trading above 5,835 its recent breakout point but below resistance near 5,910 with more possible near the 6,000 round number. Lower highs in the index and the RSI indicate upward momentum slowing.
Hong Kong 50 is still swinging back and forth between 24,000 and 24,700 recently trading between 24,220 and 24,320. RSI falling back toward 50 and lower highs for the index suggest upward momentum may have peaked.
Japan 225 staged a big bounce up off of 18,500 support, but it remains in a downtrend with resistance falling toward 18,835 from 19,000 and the index trading near 18,780.RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward momentum accelerating.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is bouncing around its 50-day average trading between 20,520 and 20,750, finishing the week near 20,650. RSI remains stuck below 50 confirming downward momentum. Next resistance on a breakout possible near 20,900 with next downside support at the March low near 20.425.
US SPX 500 has popped up from 2,340 toward 2,360 trading near 2,355 just above its 50-day average. It remains in a downtrend of lower highs below 2,365. RSI sitting on 50 suggests a sideways trend could be emerging between 2,320 and 2,380.
US NDAQ 100 continues to attract support above 5,400 with the index bouncing up from a higher low near 5,380 but falling back from 5,435 toward 5,420. RSI sending mixed signals but for now this appears to be a consolidation phase within an ongoing uptrend with resistance near 5,450 then 5,480.
UK 100 is trading near 7,300 still forming a head and shoulders top trading below 7,355 where it broke a previous uptrend while still finding neckline support near 7,260 with next support after that near 7,200. RSI under 50 indicates continuing distribution.
Germany 30 still appears to be rolling over, trading in the 12,155 to 12,255 area below its recent high near 12,375. Retreating RSI indicates upward momentum slowing. Next potential support near 12,060 then the 12,000 round number.
Gold tried to break out Friday but failed, driving up through $1,260 toward $1,272 then diving back toward $1,250, a classic bearish shooting star reversal candle. The metal price has dropped back into the $1,240 to $1,260 area trading near $1,250.
Crude Oil WTI’s latest upswing continues. The price popped up off its 50-day average near $51.20 toward $52.60 but has since slipped down toward $52.00 in what looks like normal backing and filling. Although a near term pause looks possible, rising RSI indicates the underlying uptrend continues to accelerate.
US Dollar Index is turning more aggressively upward, rallying from near 100.50 up through 101.00 with next potential resistance near 101.00 then 101.00. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum increasing.
EURUSD broke down Friday, taking out $1.0640 and $1.0600 diving toward $1.0590 with next potential support near $1.0585 then the $1.0500 round number. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward pressure increasing.
GBPUSD has dropped back from a test of $1.2500 Thursday where resistance held, back under its 50-day average near $1.2410 and on toward $1.2375. Support near $1.2355 continues to hold for now but RSI falling under 50 signals momentum turning downward. Next support on a breakdown possible near $1.2290.
NZDUSD continues to trend downward with resistance falling from $0.7000 toward $0.6960 and the pair trading near $0.6940 with next potential support near $0.6900 then $0.6860. RSI below 50 and falling faster indicates downward momentum accelerating.
AUDUSD is testing the big $0.7500 round number which could end in a confirmation of channel support or the confirmation of a new downtrend and the recent break under its 200-day average near $0.7555. Rapidly falling RSI confirms downward momentum accelerating. Next potential support near $0.7440 then $0.7400.
USDSGD continues to trend upward out of a broken downtrend. Support has moved up toward $1.4000 with the pair advancing on $1.4050. Next potential resistance appears near $1.4085 a Fibonacci level and the 50-day average, f0ollowed by $1.4155. RSI back above 50 confirms momentum turning upward.
USDJPY continues to digest recent declines between 110.00 and 111.25 between a round number and a Fibonacci test. So far this appears to be another pause within an ongoing downtrend with next support at a Fibonacci cluster between 109.00 and 109.25.
GBPJPY is retesting its 200-day average and a prior low near 137.00 which could end in a successful support test or a big breakdown that could complete a big descending triangle with next potential support near the 135.00 round number. Falling RSI indicates downward momentum increasing.
EURJPY is sitting on its 200-day average near 117.75 having broken 118.00 former channel support that has become resistance It looks like a new downleg has started with next potential support near 117.00 then 116.30. An oversold RSI, however, suggests it may need to pause at some point.
USDCAD appears to be forming a rounded top between $1.3380 and $1.3450 at a lower level than its March peak. Meanwhile RSI meeting resistance at a lower high near 60 confirms the recent uptrend may be ending but a break under 50 remains necessary to signal a downturn. An initial crack below $1.3380 met support near $1.3340 with more possible near $1.3300.
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