WTI has been showing signs of topping for a few days, but today was the one where support caved and bears gained the upper hand driving the price down. Meanwhile, indices continues to drift lower. Heading into central bank meetings AUD has been steady and stronger than NZD while JPY has been weakening relative to EUR and GBP. The Yen may have put in a bull trap top against USD above 105 but it’s too early to say.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 has bounced up off its 200-day average near 5,270 up toward 5,320 but a lot of technical damage has been done and an advance could be contained by the 50-day average near 5,400.
Japan 225 appears to be running out of gas near 17,230 a Fibonacci level trading in the 17,380 to 17,460 area. RSI near overbought suggests a correction back toward 17,000 possible.
Hong Kong 50 continues to break down, still trading below 23,000 which has become new lower resistance. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward pressure increasing. Next potential support near 22,870 then 22,750 and 22,650.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to form a bearish descending triangle above 18,000 and below its 50-day average currently near 18,275 with the index trading between 18,090 and 18,250 so far today. RSI stuck under 50 indicates continued downward pressure.
US NDAQ 100 is sitting on its 50-day average near 4,820 with resistance in place near 4,850 and support holding near 4,800. RSI under 50 suggests distribution with next potential support near 4,740 a Fibonacci level.
US SPX 500 keeps steadily forming a top and rolling over with a descending triangle forming between 2,100 and its falling 50-day average near 2,155 recently trading between 2,120 and 2,140. RSI under 50 confirms momentum has turned downward.
UK 100 remains stuck between 6,925 support and 7,000 initial resistance with more possible near 7,110 and next downside support at the 50-day average near 6,900 then 6,800. RSI slipping under 50 suggests momentum turning downward.
Germany 30 is bouncing around within a 10,500 to 10,800 trading range, recently trading between 10,580 and 10,740. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend still intact for now through this consolidation phase.
Gold is bumping up against $1,282 resistance which has held so far with support rising toward its 200-day average near $1,274 from $1,262. RSI gaining on 50 indicates downward pressure weakening and a recovery starting. Next potential resistance at a Fibonacci cluster closer to $1,300.
Crude Oil WTI broke down in a big way today with support collapsing after $48.00 gave way. The price plunged down through its 50-day average near $478.15 and kept falling toward $4640 with next potential support near $45.00 the midpoint of the $40-$50 channel which has prevailed for the last several months.
US Dollar Index has levelled off in the 98.25 to 99.00 range with resistance falling toward 98.60 as it starts to work off an overbought RSI. Next potential support in a correction appears near 97.50.
EURUSD took a run at $1.1000 but failed to get through indicating recent strength has been an upward correction within an ongoing downtrend which may be resuming with the pair falling back toward $1.0950 and next support near $1.0900.
GBPUSD has climbed from hear $1.2150 toward $1.2250 as it continues to base build in the $1.2120 to $1.2370 range. RSI confirms downward pressure has levelled off and oversold conditions have started to ease.
NZDUSD is still struggling with the pair below $0.7195 a Fibonacci level and the RSI below 50. A head and shoulders top appears to be forming. Current support in place near $0.7105 then $0.7040.
AUDUSD is holding steady near $0.7600 and the 50-day average having bounced up off of a higher low and uptrend support near $0.7540. As ascending triangle continues to form below $0.7725 with initial resistance near $0.7655.
USDSGD continues to show signs of topping for now with resistance dropping toward $1.3940 from $1.4000 and the pair sliding toward $1.3910 with support near $1.3880 then $1.3830. RSI back under 70 signals a correction underway.
USDCNH has levelled off in the 6.7820 to 6.7860 area with resistance having emerged near 6.7940. RSI overbought and rolling over suggests potential for a correction back toward 6.725 a 23% retracement of the recent advance.
USDJPY continues to trend upward trading toward 105.50 before correcting back to a higher low near 104.50 and then retesting 105.00 as lower resistance. RSI trending upward confirms upward momentum still increasing but today’s action suggests a top could be forming and a correction back toward 104.00 possible. .
GBPJPY is testing the top of its 124.70 to 128.70 base building range where an ascending triangle has been forming. The pair has moved up from 127.60 toward 128.50 with next potential resistance on a breakout near the 130.00 round number then the 50-day average near 131.25.
EURJPY is breaking out today, clearing 115.00 a round number, Fibonacci test and midpoint of its current 114.00 to 1116.00 grading range. RSI above 50 but below 60 indicates an upswing underway within a bigger sideways trend.
USDCAD remains in an uptrend above $1.3310 but appears to levelling off in the $1.3390 to $1.3430 range, below the $1.3500 round number. RSI flattening out near 60 similar to previous tops.
USDMXN is breaking out today clearing its 50-day average near 18.90 plus 50 on its RSI to confirm the start of a new upswing with next potential resistance near 19.18 then 19.38.
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