Major indices were totally crushed on Friday with bears overwhelming the bulls as key channel and moving average support levels collapsed, signalling the start of a seasonal selloff. On top of this, declines were confirmed by RSI momentum indicators dropping under 50 across a wide range of contracts. USD breakout carried through to weakness in other currencies, particularly gold.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 broke down in a big way Friday taking out 5,330 a Fibonacci level that may become resistance then falling toward 5,270 with next potential support near 5,200 then 5,145. RSI getting really oversold indicating a bounce possible but also still confirming downward momentum for now.
Hong Kong 50 looks vulnerable to a catch up selloff having completed a bearish shooting star Friday and a bull trap failing to hold above 24,000 and finishing near 23,820. Next support possible near 23,670 then 23,405. Overbought RSI also indicates potential for a downward correction.
Japan 225 dropped back under 17,000 toward a test of Fibonacci and 200-day average support near 16,815. A failure there would signal the start of a downtrend that could test 16,675 initially or even 16,500 and the 50-day average. RSI confirms momentum rolling over.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is increasingly breaking down with the index taking out its 50-day average near 18,415 as it falls from near 18,460 toward 18,150 with next potential support near the 18,000 round number. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing.
US NDAQ 100 was totally crushed Friday after 4,800 gave way taking out 4,740 on its way toward a test of 4,700 and its 50-day average. RSI plunge confirms momentum downturn. Next potential support near 4,595 a previous breakout point.
US SPX 500 fell hard after a break of its 50-day average near 2,165 signalled the start of a deeper correction that could retest 2,125 or even 2,100 with the index plunging toward 2,140 already. RSI diving under 50 confirms momentum turning downward.
UK 100 is starting to roll over, failing to hold 6,800 and slumping toward a test of its 50-day average near 6,740 with channel support in place near 6,700 followed by the August low near 6,610. RSI dipping under 50 indicates momentum turning downward.
Germany 30 continues to fall away from a double top near 10,680 back toward channel support near 10,500 where a break would confirm the start of a downtrend with next support at the 50-day average near 10,300. RSI diving under 50 signals a downturn.
Gold’s recent bounce appears to be over with the price dropping back under $1,340 and its 50-day average toward $1,330 and RSI falling back to 50 nearly confirming a downturn. Next potential support in a pullback possible near $1,326 then the $1,290 to $1,300 area near a round number and Fibonacci cluster.
Crude Oil WTI took a step backward Friday dropping back toward $45.70 after faltering near $47.00. It remains in an uptrend of higher lows and well above $45.00 mid-channel support. RSI bouncing around 50 indicates a choppy sideways trend emerging.
US Dollar Index broke out Friday and advanced on 95.50 again well into the upper half of a 94.00 to 96.00 trading channel. RSI back at 50 indicates an upswing underway within a sideways trend.
EURUSD slumped back toward $1.1200 Friday confirming a Thursday shooting star candle signalled the end of the recent upswing at a lower high. RSI retesting 50 indicates confirmation of a downturn pending. Next support possible near $1.1140 close to a previous low plus the 50 and 200-day averages.
GBPUSD failed to hold support at $1.3315 the 23% retracement of the Brexit selloff, and has dropped back toward $1.3250 with next correction support possible near $1.3200 then the 50-day average near $1.3145. RSI falling toward but holding above 50 indicative of a correction within an uptrend.
NZDUSD is rolling over with $0.7400 initial support failing and the pair dropping back toward the $0.7310 to $0.7360 area with next potential support near $0.7300 and $0.7265.
AUDUSD continues to fall away from $0.7700 resistance trading in th3 $0.7540 to $0.7570 zone above $0.7500- round number support. Should that fail, next downside test appear near $0.7420 a previous low then the 200-day average near $0.7390.
USDSGD continues its upswing rallying up off its 50-day average near $1.3490 and driving toward a test of $1.3600 with next potential resistance near $1.3665. RSI back above 50 confirms an upswing underway off a higher low.
USDJPY continues to rally up off a higher low near 101.00 advancing on its 50-day average near 103.00 trading near 102.80. Next potential resistance near 103.70 and 104.40. RSI setting a higher low near 50 indicates momentum turning upward.
GBPJPY is sitting on 136.00 a 23% retracement of its Brexit selloff digesting recent moves above its 50-day average near 134.65 and below 138.55. RSI holding 50 indicates this as a normal pause within an emerging uptrend.
EURJPY is sitting on 115.00 near the 23% retracement of its previous downtrend within an emerging 114.00 to 116.50 trading range. RSI holding 50 indicates this as a normal consolidation phase.
CADJPY ran into resistance near 79.50 faltering short of the 80.00 round number and Fibonacci test but holding 78.60 for now. RSI dipping under 50 suggests momentum turning downward with next potential support on a breakdown near 78.15 and 77.35.
USDCAD is swinging upward again, having cleared both $1.3000 for the pair (50-day average, round number and Fibonacci level) and 50 on the RSI (where a breakout would confirm an upturn). Next potential resistance appears near $1.3165.
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