It’s been a day for big tests and reversals but the biggest action has been in GBPUSD which plunged below $1.2400 and its 50-day average setting off bearish signals then soared back above $1.2500 setting off bullish signals. The US Dollar index regained 100.00 but EUR still looks soft while gold and JPY remain well supported. US indices looked strong early on but were unable to overcome resistance and appear to be completing double tops. The US NDAQ broke out to a new high but this has not been confirmed by its peers.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is still clinging to 5,600 support but remains under distribution with the index stuck below its 50-day average near 5,635 and the RSI under 50 and falling. A breakdown would complete a bearish descending triangle and signal a new downleg with next potential support near 5,515 then the 200-day average near 5,440.
Japan 225 remains in a downtrend with a failure to retake 19,000 in a retest confirming its recent breakdown. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward pressure increasing. Next potential support near 18,810 then 18,635.
Hong Kong 50 has paused in the 23,250 to 23,400 range in the upper half of a 23,000 to 23,500 zone where it has been consolidating recent gains. RSI suggests momentum levelling off but higher lows in the index suggest continued underlying accumulation.
North American and European Indices
US 30 challenged but failed to clear 20,140 resistance and appears to be completing a double top sliding back toward 20,080 with next potential support near 20,040 then 20,000. RSI holding above 50 indicates underlying accumulation continues. Next potential resistance on a breakout possible near 20,200.
US SPX 500 retested 2,300 resistance today and failed to get through, completing a bearish double top. RSI still indicating upward momentum slowing. The index has slipped back toward 2,292 with initial support near 2,282 then 2,252.
US NDAQ 100 is breaking out today, clearing the top of a 5,100 to 5,175 trading range and advancing on 5,200 with next potential measured resistance near 5,250. RSI is not confirming, creating a negative RSI divergence that suggests upward momentum may be peaking. Initial downside support possible near 5,125.
UK 100 tried to break out today clearing 7,200 a round number and Fibonacci level briefly but then turning back downward falling toward 7,170 with next support possible near 7,160 and 7,100.
Germany 30 successfully retested 11,445 support holding above its 50-day average as well and has bounced back above 11,500 toward 11,545. It needs to retake 50 on the RSI and 11,700 on the index, however, to call off recent bearish signals and suggest this is more than just a trading bounce.
Gold is consolidating Monday’s gains with $1,229 a Fibonacci level becoming higher support, up from $1,220. Initial resistance appears near $1,235 then $1,250. A negative RSI divergence emerging suggests upward momentum may be slowing for now.
Crude Oil WTI continues to drop back from $53.80, diving from $52.30 into the $51.40 to $51.70 area where it has been successfully testing its 50-day moving average. It remains in an uptrend of higher lows forming an ascending triangle below $54.20 and holding above its 50-day average near $51.50. If that fails, next support may appear near $50.40 or $50.00.
US Dollar Index is turning up out of a downtrend today, with the 100.00 round number becoming support and the index advancing on the 100.25 to 100.50 area with next potential resistance near 101.00. RSI also breaking out of a downtrend but needs to retake 50 to confirm an upturn.
EURUSD is rolling over today, taking out $1.0700 and sliding toward $1.0675 with next potential support near $1.0640 then the $1.0580 to $1.0600 area where a Fibonacci level and the 50-day average cluster together. RSI testing 50 where a breakdown would confirm a downturn in momentum.
GBPUSD has a big bullish bear trap reversal underway today. Early on, the pair broke down below $1.2400 its 50-day moving average but after establishing support at a higher low near $1.2355 the pair has soared back up through $1.2500 and on toward $1.2520 with next potential resistance near $1.2540 then $1.2600. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying uptrend still intact.
NZDUSD tried to break out of a symmetrical consolidation triangle clearing $0.7350 briefly but didn’t get very far peaking near $0.7370 then slumping back toward $0.7315. Next potential support in a pullback possible near $0.7285 then $0.7240.
AUDUSD continues to struggle with $0.7700 resistance with more possible near $0.7725. The pair has slipped back into the $0.7610 to $0.7640 area with next potential support near $0.7600 and $0.7500. A trading correction may be needed to ease an overbought RSI.
USDSGD appears to be trying to turn upward today, retaking $1.4155 but so far the rally has been contained to $1.4200 with next potential resistance near $1.4260. RSI remains below 50 suggesting this could be an upward correction within an ongoing downtrend.
USDJPY found some support near 111.65 with more possible near 111.25. The pair bounced back up toward 112.35 a Fibonacci level, retesting a recent breakdown point as new resistance then dropped back into the 111.80 to 112.20 area. RSI still below 50 suggests this bounce as a common correction within a larger downtrend.
GBPJPY has bounced back above 140.00 having established support at a higher low above 138.10 Fibonacci support. A higher low in the RSI confirms downward pressure weakening and an upturn pending. Currently testing a round number and the 200-day average, next potential resistance appear near 141.00 then 142.25 a Fibonacci level.
EURJPY is sending mixed signals. A hammer candle suggests the bulls may be starting to fight back after support came in near 119.45,but the pair needs to retake 120.00 to signal an upturn with next resistance after that possible near the 121.00 breakdown point.
USDCAD is turning upward today, clearing $1.3140 its 200-day average, advancing on $1.3180 with next potential resistance near $1.3200 then $1.3265 and $1.3300. RSI testing 50 where a breakout would confirm an upturn.
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