AUD has been getting hammered lately breaking down below its 200-day average while NZD has been clinging to $0.7000 support for now. USD remains under accumulation but overextended signals suggest it may be peaking. On the other hand, JPY, which has been under pressure, may be close to a bottom against EUR and USD. Indices look like distribution has resumed.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 continues to fall away from a lower high near 5,400 trading below its 50-day average near 5,350 and sliding toward 5,300 followed by its 200-day average near 5,280. RSI faltering at 50 confirms momentum turning downward with next potential support near 5,200.
Japan 225 is holding above 17,795 a recent breakout point but continues to encounter resistance at the 18,000 round number also a 62% Fibonacci retracement of a previous downtrend. RSI near overbought suggests potential for a pause or a correction. Recently trading in the 17,810 to 17,910 zoned next support on a breakdown possible near 17,600.
Hong Kong 50 remains under distribution trading between 22,080 and 22,180 around 22.140 a Fibonacci level. RSI near oversold suggests potential for a pause above 22,000 and below 22,500 in the near term.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is starting to fall back having run into a wall of resistance at the 19,000 round number. An overbought RSI suggests potential for a correction. The index has dropped from near 18,910 back toward 18,840 with next potential support near 18,670 a recent breakout point.
US NDAQ 100 held 4,740 a key technical level within a 4,660 to 4,900 trading range and has rebounded toward 4,780. Lower highs in the index, the RSI stuck under 50 and trading below the 50-day average suggest emerging distribution.
US SPX 500 remains stuck below 2,190 resistance slipping back from 2,180 toward 2,172. RSI starting to roll over suggesting a downshift in momentum but it remains in an upswing above support in the 2,150 to 2,160 area.
UK 100 is still rolling over with the RSI under 50 and falling indicating downward pressure increasing. The index has dropped from near 6,810 toward 6,760 with next potential support in the 6,640 to 6,660 zone.
Germany 30 continues to backslide within its 10,000 to 10,880 trading range, falling from near 10,780 toward 10,660 with next potential support near 10,610 then the 50-day average near 10,550. RSI faltering at 60 confirms sideways trend intact.
Gold continues to form a base trading near $1,225 in a $1,222 to $1,232 range having successfully tested $1,210 Fibonacci support. An oversold RSI and positive divergence suggest potential for a b ounce with next resistance near $1,250.
Crude Oil WTI has dropped back from near $46.30 into the $45.30 to $45.90 area in a normal retrenchment following a 5% rally and successful retest of $45.00 support. RSI indicates downward pressure easing. Next support possible near $44.25 with next resistance at the 50-day average near $47.00.
US Dollar Index is rising again trading above the 100.00 round number and testing 100.55 its late 2015 high with more resistance possible near a measured 101.00. RSI really overbought and a negative divergence suggests potential for a correction increasing.
EURUSD is still under pressure falling below $1.0700 although an oversold RSI suggests it could find some support or bounce sometime soon. Downside support possible near $1.0670 then $1.0620, with initial resistance near $1.0730.
GBPUSD is dropping back in what looks like a normal downswing within a $1.2350 to $1.2650 trading range. RSI sitting on 50 confirms sideways trend. Recent range between $1.2420 and $1.2480.
NZDUSD continues to hold above $0.7000 key support where a round number, the neckline of a head and shoulders top, a Fibonacci level and the 200-day average all converge. The pair has bounced into the $0.7040 to $0.7060 area with initial resistance near $0.7100 then $0.7140. RSI suggests downward pressure increasing with next support possible near $0.6940.
AUDUSD is breaking down today, taking out the $0.7500 round number and its 200-day average to confirm the start of a new downtrend with next potential support near $0.7390 a channel bottom. RSI indicates downward pressure increasing.
USDSGD is still pausing in the $1.4100 to $1.4200 range to consolidate recent gains but an overbought RSI suggests a correction remains possible, perhaps back toward the $1.4000 round number.
USDJPY keeps rallying upward breaking out over above 109.00 a Fibonacci level, but it also looks increasingly vulnerable to a correction with RSI really overbought and a test of the 110.00 round number underway. Potential for a bull trap buying climax growing in this market.
GBPJPY’s advance has started to level off near 136.00 short of 138.10 a Fibonacci level. The pair has paused near 135.80 with initial support possible near 135.00. An overbought RSI suggests it could rest for a while or stage a correction in the near term.
EURJPY peeked above 117.00 traded up toward 117.45 to a new high on trend then slumped back to 116.60 a bull trap reversal which suggests the recent advance may be over and a correction starting. Initial support possible near 116.15 a recent breakout point.
USDCAD continues to roll over, falling away from a lower high near the $1.3500 round number and sliding toward $1.3420 with next potential support near $1.3400 then $1.3345 and $1.3310 a Fibonacci level.
USDMXN is sending mixed signals. The pair held 20.00 and has bounced up through 20.35 a Fibonacci level and on toward 20.50 with next potential resistance near 20.75 then slumped back toward 20.30. A negative RSI divergence, however, suggests upward momentum slowing while RSI falling back under 70 suggests a correction starting.
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