A number of currencies appear to have bottomed out against the US Dollar Friday and are starting to rebound including AUD, which held $0.7500, JPY which held a Fibonacci level, NZD, SGD and EUR. Indices in Australia and Japan remain under accumulation forming ascending triangles while the Hong Kong Market continues to struggle.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 remains under accumulation, climbing up off a higher low near 5,725 and its 50-day average, advancing on 5,780 with next potential resistance near 5,830 the top of an ascending triangle. RSI climbing up off 50 indicates upward momentum reaccelerating. Next potential resistance on a breakout near 5,900 then the 6,000 round number.
Hong Kong 50 remains under distribution, sliding toward 23,580 as a trend of lower highs continues. RSI under 50 and falling indicates momentum turning increasingly downward. Next potential support near 23,500 then the 50-day average near 23,255. Initial rebound resistance near 23,695.
Japan 225 keeps on climbing, regaining 19,500 and trending toward 19,580 with next potential resistance near 19,675 the top of an ascending triangle. RSI above 50 confirms continued interest. Neat potential resistance on a breakout near the 20,000 round number.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is on the rebound advancing back up into the 20,880 to 20,920 area having successfully retested its uptrend support line near 20,840. Next resistance appears near 20 000 then 20,155. RSI back under 70 suggests, however, that this could just be a trading bounce.
US SPX 500 found support at a higher low near 2,350 and has bounced back up toward 2,375 with resistance still in place near 2,400. RSI suggests stabilization after a recent correction but the index remains vulnerable to a correction.
US NDAQ 100 failed to break through 5,395 resistance, the top of the current channel, completing a double top. An overbought RSI and a negative divergence suggest upward momentum slowing so it could struggle to make headway. Initial support possible near 5,330 then 5,300.
UK 100 has bounced back above 7,300 into the upper half of its 7,200 to 7,400 trading channel, rallying toward 7,350. RSI holding well above 50 indicates its underlying uptrend remains intact as an ascending triangle forms.
Germany 30 tried to regain 12,000 but failed, dropping back from 12,060 toward 11,980. It continues to trend upward in a rising channel above its 50-day average but a growing negative RSI divergence suggests this trend is weakening. Next support possible near 11,930 then the 50-day average near 11,730.
Gold broke down Friday, taking out $1,200 and sliding toward $1,195 with next potential support near $1,183 its January low. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum accelerating. Initial resistance on a rebound possible near $1,205.
Crude Oil WTI successfully tested its 200-day average near $48.25 and bounce back toward $50.00 where it faltered, failing to call off last week’s big breakdown. With RSI oversold, the price could be moving into a lower trading range between these levels where it could spend some time digesting recent losses.
US Dollar Index is sending mixed signals. The index has been knocked back form near 102.00 toward 101.10 but remains in an uptrend of higher lows forming an ascending triangle below 102.25 with next resistance near 103.00. Next downside support appears near 100.60 then 100.00. RSI, however, suggests upward momentum weakening. .
EURUSD is starting to turn back upward. On Friday, the pair broke out over $1.0625 rallying up off $1.0585 toward $1.0700 before slipping back toward $1.0670. RSI regained 50 confirming an upturn in momentum. Next potential resistance near $1.0720 a Fibonacci level.
GBPUSD is still stabilizing between $1.2140 and $1.2190 potentially forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders base. It needs to clear $1.2200 to signal an upturn with next upside resistance near $1.2300. Next downward support near $1.211. RSI suggests downward pressure levelling off.
NZDUSD is starting to bounce back, climbing toward $0.6925 having successfully retested support near $0.6880. An oversold RSI suggests potential for an upward correction. Initial resistance appears near $0.6980 but it really needs to retake $0.7000 to signal the start of a serious upswing.
AUDUSD is on the rebound, rallying up off a successful retest of $0.7500 round number resistance, regaining its 200-day average and testing its 50-day average near $0.7550. Next potential resistnace near $0.7600 with next downside support near $0.7465. .
USDSGD’s latest rally attempt has been rejected by its 50-day average near $1.4210 with the pair diving back down into the $1.4110 to $1.4130 area with next potential support near $1.4085 then $1.4000. RSI back under 50 indicates sideways to downward momentum.
USDJPY may be peaking. The pair shot up through 115.00 toward 115.00 where smashed into a wall of Fibonacci resistance then tumbled back toward 114.75, completing a bull trap and a bearish shooting star. A downturn today could complete an Evening Star.
GBPJPY remains under distribution with its downtrend of lower highs continuing as the pair slides back under 140.00 with next potential support near 139.50 then 138.10. RSI under 50 confirms downward momentum.
EURJPY is still accelerating upward, building on recent breakouts as support moves up from 121.00 toward 121.80 and the pair advances on 122.70 with next potential upside resistance near 123.20 then 124.20.
USDCAD is really overbought on the RSI and may be starting to retreat falling back from near $1.3540 back under $1.3500 and on toward $1.3470. More upside resistance in place near $1.3600 the top of a big trading channel. Next downside support possible near $1.3420, Friday’s intraday low.
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