If you are following the Brexit vote tomorrow, here’s what to expect
- Voting will close at 7am AEST (10pm GMT)
- There will be no exit polls taken
- However, polling companies may do “on the day” surveys and publish results after official voting closes
- When voting closes; ballot boxes will be transported to 382 local centres for counting.
- Officials will firstly count the number of votes in each centre and announce “turnout’ for that area
- They will then proceed to counting the leave and remain votes in each area.
- Once each area’s count is completed, it will be publically announced. In many cases this will be done before TV cameras (it’s going to be a massive media event)
- Demographics are likely to play a hand in each area’s result. Polling suggests that the leave vote is strongest in areas with heavy concentrations of older or less educated voters.
- Keep in mind that the referendum will be determined by the total number of votes throughout the UK and not on the basis of a majority of areas.
- The media and pundits will be keeping a running tally of the total vote as each area is declared
- The first results from small areas are likely to start being announced around 9am AEST (12am GMT)
- By 11am AEST (2am GMT) around 40 area results are likely to have been reported.
- Between 11am and 2pm AEST ( 2-5am GMT) the area results should flow thick and fast.
- The final area counts should be declared by 4pm AEST (7am GMT)
- The result: How soon the pundits will get a reliable sense of the referendum’s outcome will depend on how close the vote is. The general expectation is that pundits may be able to reliably call the result sometime between 12pm and 2pm AEST (3-5am GMT). However, if the vote is really close, it could be as late as 5pm AEST (8am GMT) before the result is known.
- Asian traders in the firing line: Given the timing of the vote, if there is going to be high volatility surrounding this event, it’s likely to start during the Asian time zone
Insights: Look for analyst comment on market reaction to significant milestones in the Brexit count on our CFD platform Insights tomorrow. Insights can be accessed under the Market Pulse Tab on the top tool bar.