Rarely are the fundamentals so clear. US growth rates are higher than the European Union's. Inflation is breaking higher in North America, but stuck in EU mud. Interest rate rises are coming as early as next week in New York, yet still in the far distance in Berlin. Despite these clear drivers EUR/USD has held above a floor between 1.0300 and 1.0600 for the last 17 years. But the floor may be about to break.
A factor supporting EUR over the years is the constant stream of investment flows - from global investors in good times, and from the repatriation of funds by Europeans in darker times. However, important elections across the continent and the shift in political sentiment towards nationalism and populism could undermine this dynamic. Investors tend to avoid uncertainty.
The chart above points to the potential for another test of the floor soon. Note the multiple layers. The green lines at 1.0430 and 1.0515 correspond to lows hit in March and November of 2015 respectively. The fall below these levels in late 2016 proved a false break, but established the 17 year low at 1.0340. Naturally, any fall below these levels are important.
Now check the MACD. Although the closing of the gap between the lines indicates a slowing of selling momentum the indicator remains below zero. Any down moves from here will see a negative cross below the zero line, providing a sell signal. Many traders won't use MACD singles alone but a break of support on lower time frame charts could be enough under some trading plans. And next week the Fed may provide the trigger in the form of a rate rise.
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