AUD/USD is at an inflection point. Ahead of an almost certain rate hike from the US Federal Reserve on March 15 (5 am March 16 Melb/Syd) the USD is on the rise, pushing the AUD down. It's now trading below key support/resistance at 0.7520, with potential for further significant falls. Expectations of further rate rises over the year could add to the weight on this currency pair.
The chart above shows AUD/USD acting in a number of different ways at it approaches the 0.7520 inflection point (bright green horizontal line). Sometimes it charges right through, at other times it turns on a pinhead. On other occasions it does "work" at the line before determining its direction. And of course past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future.
This uncertainty is why many traders like to combine signals. Now have a look at the MACD at the bottom of the chart. The drop through the zero line combined with a widening gap between the lines points to strengthening negative momentum. While AUD/USD remains below 0.7520 I'm bearish. I sell at current market with a stop loss at 0.7545.
Some traders could target the support around 0.7330, others may look for a full move to 0.7160. Both offer richer reward to risk ratios. However, I'll use a parbolic SAR (stop and reverse) and let the market tell me when it's time to exit.
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