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The Week Ahead: OPEC, central bank meetings and jobs data

oil drill

Asia markets are set to be more resilient in the week ahead after a sharp rebound in US tech stocks last Friday, while China is heading into the golden week for the Luna Year holiday.

Central banks’ remarks will be in focus ahead of the US January non-farm payroll. A slew of US and European counties’ PMIs will gauge omicron’s impact on major economies. OPEC and allies are set to meet this week for another discussion on output.

US

All three major US indices finished higher, the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 3%.

This Friday’s non-farm payroll might show a weaker increase in the US labour market while the unemployment rate indicates the country is approaching full employment. The US is expected to grow 238,000 jobs in January according to Thomson Reuters, but other consensus projects mid-100,000. Market sentiment will be driven by the pace of wage increase rather than the job number, as rising hiring cost is causing higher inflation.

The US ISM manufacturer and services PMI are due on Wednesday and Friday, which are also economic indicators to gauge the largest economy’s activity.

Fourth-quarter company earnings will be still catching investors’ attention this week. Apple reported the record-quarterly revenue and gave the tech stocks an ultimate push on the last trading day in the week. Investment sentiment is likely turning upside for the rest of the big tech’s performance, with Google, Meta Platform, and Amazon to come.

The RBA’s policy meeting and New Zealand’s jobs data

Both Asian-Pacific countries reported fourth-quarter CPI last week, with inflation a concern for both central banks. RBA will be the first central bank to decide on its monetary policy after the Fed on Tuesday. It is likely to follow the Fed’s hawkish guide and signal an end its assets purchase program.

New Zealand’s fourth-quarter job data comes on Wednesday. In the backdrop of the flaring inflation, any strong economic data will lead to a more aggressive move for RBNZ to double the pace of rate hikes in the coming policy meeting.

Canada’s GDP and job data

Canada has GDP data for November due on Wednesday and January employment data to be released at the same time as the US non-farm payroll on Friday. Omicron might cause negative growth in the local labour markets in January, but it might not change the BOC’s move to have its first-rate hike in March.

OPEC to meet

OPEC and allies meet on Wednesday to discuss joint oil output. The organization is likely to keep its current pace of production increase of 400,000 barrels a day, which will not help to cool down the roaring crude price. The Ukraine-Russia crisis is pushing prices higher and it might not be long before we see oil prices hit $US100 a barrel.


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