Strong data sends US traders home for the holidays in a happy mood
13:00, November 25 2015
· By Colin Cieszynski
Although not up as much as their European counterparts today, US indices have been trading higher with traders heading home for Thanksgiving in a buoyant mood. The US Dollar index has been bumping up against 100 while US indices have been posting moderate gains.
There has been a ton of US economic data out today, most of it positive. A much stronger than expected durable goods report led the way and is significant because it represents a turnaround in a part of the US economy that has been struggling for much of this year. Meanwhile, jobless claims, Core PCE inflation and rising house prices all indicates a robust economy. Even the small misses in home sales and consumer sentiment are not big enough or important enough to force the Fed to reconsider raising interest rates this month.
Crude oil has shrugged off the weakness related to the rise in API inventories as DOE inventories rose at a smaller than expected pace, US implied demand increased again and the number of active drilling rigs fell again. It appears that the supply/demand imbalance within the US is sorting itself out, supporting the price, but actions and events offshore could still impact the market.
With the US off on holiday and not providing leadership, trading typically goes quiet. That being said we could see some interest in Australia, New Zealand and Singapore around data announcements. We also could see some positioning in Japanese markets ahead of tomorrow’s announcements.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US durable goods orders 3.0% vs street 1.7%
US durables ex transport 0.5% vs street 0.3%
US personal income 0.4% as expected
US personal spending 0.1% vs street 0.3%
US core PCE inflation 1.3% vs 1.4%
US capital goods ex def & air 1.3% vs street 0.2%
US jobless claims 260K vs street 270K
US continuing claims 2,207K vs street 2,161K
US FHFA house prices 0.8%street 0.4%
US Markit flash service PMI 56.5 vs street 55.1 vs previous 54.8
US new home sales 495K vs street 500K
US U Michigan sentiment 91.3 vs street 93.1
US DOE crude oil inventories 0.96 mmbbls vs street 1.0 mmbbls
US DOE gasoline inventories 2.4 mmbbls vs street 0.95 mmbbls
US DOE oil implied demand 16,361 mmbbls vs previous 16,114 mmbbls
US natural gas 9 BCF vs street 6 BCF
US Baker Hughes drill rigs 744 vs previous 757
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
8:45 am AEDT NZ Trade Balance street ($1.0B)
11:30 am AEDT Australia Q3 private capex street (2.9%) vs previous (4.0%)
4:00 pm AEDT Singapore industrial production street (5.3%)
8:00 am GMT Spain GDP street 3.4%
8:30 am GMT Sweden trade balance street SEK 2.0B