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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy – FOMC edition (4 May 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Continue to watch the 1.0460 pivotal support to maintain short-term bounce scenario

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Since our last report dated on 29 April 2022, the EUR/USD has traded sideways above the 1.0460 pivotal support. No major changes on the key short-term technical elements, maintain bullish bias above 1.0460 for a potential short-term corrective rebound to retest 1.0570 before a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.0650 within a medium-term downtrend phase.

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.0460 exposes further weakness towards the next supports at 1.0410 and 1.0350.

GBP/USD – Watch the 1.2370 pivotal support to maintain short-term bounce scenario

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No major changes on the key short-term technical elements on GBP/USD since on last published report on 29 April 2022. Maintain bullish bias above 1.2370 key short-term pivotal support for a potential corrective rebound to retest 1.2605 before a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.2700 within a medium-term downtrend phase.

However, a break with an hourly close below 1.2370 invalidates the short-term corrective rebound scenario for the continuation of the impulsive down move towards the next support at 1.2250 in the first step.

USD/JPY – Minor pull-back level met at 129.30, watch 130.55 upside trigger next

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The USD/JPY has staged the expected pull-back to retest the 129.30 former minor swing high of 20 April 2022 (printed an intraday low of 129.29 on 29 April, US session) as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 29 April 2022.

Thereafter, the pair has trade within a range of 114 pips till to date ahead of FOMC. Maintain bullish bias above 128.20 short-term pivotal support and added a potential upside trigger level at 130.55. A clearance above 130.55 reinforces another potential leg of impulsive up move towards the next resistance at 132.00 in the first step.

On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 128.20 invalidates the bullish tone for a multi-week corrective decline towards the next support at 126.30/125.80 in the first step.

AUD/USD – Potential short-term corrective bounce in progress

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The AUD/USD has whipsawed around the 0.7095 key short-term pivotal support since the publication of our last report dated on 29 April 2022. The hourly RSI oscillator has managed to hold above a key corresponding support at the 37% level which indicates the lack of clear short-term downside momentum at this juncture.

Tolerate the excess and maintain bullish bias above 0.7075 key short-term pivotal support for a potential short-term minor corrective bounce towards the intermediate resistance of 0.7230. On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 0.7075 invalidates the minor corrective bounce scenario for a continuation of the impulsive down move towards the major support of 0.7000 (major swing lows area of November/December 2021 & January/February 2022).

Time stamped: 4 May 2022 at 5.30pm SGT

Source: TradingView

 

 


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