X

Select the account you'd like to open

FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (12 Apr 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – 1.0850 hit, potential pause in bearish trend

(click to enlarge chart)

The EUR/USD has staged the expected drop as per highlighted in our previous report on 7 April and hit the first support at 1.0850 (printed a low of 1.0835 on 8 April.

Short-term elements have indicated that the pair may shape a minor mean reversion rebound with a bullish divergence signal flashed out on the hourly RSI oscillator at its oversold region. If the 1.0835 key short-term pivotal support holds, it may see a bounce towards the near-term resistance at 1.0950 and a break above it is likely to extend to 1.1000 next before potential bearish pressure reasserts.

However, an hourly close below 1.0835 invalidates the minor mean reversion rebound for a continuation of the impulsive down move sequence towards the next support at 1.0800/1.0770.

GBP/USD – 1.3000 hit but no clear signs of short-term recovery

(click to enlarge chart)

The GBP/USD has staged the expected drop as per highlighted in our previous report on 7 April and hit the 1.3000 support (printed a low of 1.2980 on 8 April). Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance at 1.3060 for another potential downleg towards the next supports at 1.2975 and 1.2930/2910.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.3060 sees a squeeze up to retest the 1.3110 descending channel resistance in place since 23 March 2022 swing high.

USD/JPY – 125.80 major resistance met, at risk of minor mean reversion decline

(click to enlarge chart)

The USD/JPY has skyrocketed as expected and hit the 125.80 major resistance as per highlighted in our previous report on 7 April (printed a high of 125.77 on 11 April). Elements are now advocating for a short-term mean reversion decline towards the intermediate supports at 124.70 and 124.15.

On the other hand, a 4-hour close above 125.80 invalidates the minor mean reversion decline scenario for a continuation of the impulsive up move sequence towards the next resistances at 126.90 and 127.90.

AUD/USD – Broke below 0.7470, further potential down move

(click to enlarge chart)

The AUD/USD has broken below the 0.7470 lower limit of the neutrality range as per highlighted in our previous report on 7 April. Flip to bearish bias below 0.7470 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential drop towards the next support at 0.7365/50 (also the former descending trendline resistance from 25 February 2021 high).

On the flipside, an hourly close above 0.7470 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.7560 resistance.

Time stamped: 12 Apr 2022 at 7.30am SGT

Source: TradingView


Sign up for market update emails