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FX Analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (1 Apr 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – 1.1185 resistance met, at risk of a bearish resurgence

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The EUR/USD has started the expected rally and hit the 1.1185 resistance/target as per highlighted in our prior report on 30 March. Elements have turned negative in the short-term, flip to a bearish bias below 1.1185, now as a short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential drop towards the next intermediate supports at 1.1035 and 1.1000 next in the first step.

On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.1185 sees a continuation of the corrective rally in place since 7 March 2022 low towards the next resistance at 1.1235 (swing high areas of 28 February/1 March 2022).

GBP/USD – Tolerate the short-term pivotal resistance to an excess of 1.3175

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The GBP/USD has staged a minor sparked up briefly above the 1.3160 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report on 30 March, it printed an intraday high of 1.3183 on 30 March before it reintegrated back below 1.3160.

Tolerate the short-term pivotal resistance to an excess of 1.3175 and maintain bearish bias for a potential push down towards the next support at 1.3030. However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.3175 sees a squeeze up towards 1.3240 before 1.3290 next.

USD/JPY – Failure to break below 121.30, reduces the odds of a multi-week corrective decline

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The USD/JPY has dropped towards the first support/target of 121.30 as per highlighted in our previous report on 30 March and it has failed to make a bearish break below it after a second retest yesterday, 31 March.

Thereafter, it has staged rebound and cleared above upper boundary of the minor descending channel and 55-perior moving average that has capped prior rallies since 29 March with the hourly RSI oscillator reintegrated back above the 50% level. These observations suggest a potential resurgence of upside momentum.

Watch the 121.30 level, now as a short-term pivotal support and a bullish break above 123.30 is likely to trigger another wave of potential impulsive up move sequence towards 125.30/80 major range resistance.

On the other hand, failure to hold above 121.30 with an hourly close below it reignites the bearish tone towards 120.55 and 119.90 next.

AUD/USD – No change, maintain bearish bias below 0.7560

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The AUD/USD has continued to trade in a tight sideways range of 65 pips since 28 March. Maintain bearish bias below 0.7560 key medium-term pivotal resistance for a potential drop towards the next support at 0.7415, max at 0.7365 in the first step.

On the flipside, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 0.7560 sees the continuation of the medium-term corrective up move sequence towards the next resistances at 0.7640 and 0.7690.

Time stamped: 1 Apr 2022 at 12.30pm SGT

Source: TradingView

 


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