The USA, Mexico and Canada came to an agreement on trade that replaces NAFTA and the now abandoned TPP structures. Many analysts see the new USMCTA as an updated version of the previous agreements rather than a break with the past. Nevertheless the US dollar and shares rallied and oil hit a new four year high. In the background bonds eased higher and the US ten year bond rose to within a few basis points of the break out point at 3.126%.

Macro data this week is focused on activity, with PMIs around the globe supporting reads on US durable goods, Italian retail sales and US non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. The reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave rates unchanged at its monthly meeting today, although the resurgent US dollar may see forex markets zero in on any implications for AUD/USD.

Asia Pacific markets may see subdued trading despite these positive leads. Markets in China are closed all week for national day holidays, and traders in Hong Kong and Australia are returning from a long weekend. Reports that the Hayne Royal Commission inquiry may seek result in charges against wealth manager AMP as early as this week may pressure financial stocks.