Impending market events and holidays across the Asia Pacific region could see a muted start to trading today. The RBA will release its interest rate decision this afternoon ahead of the Fed’s announcement tomorrow night. Resources are in focus as the deadline for temporary tariff exemptions approaches, and a rally in oil prices, despite a strengthening US dollar, demands attention.
Personal consumption data in the US shows inflation lifted to the target of 2%. The dollar lifted but band traders refused to budge. Interest rate markets are pricing a 35% chance of a hike tomorrow night, but a 93% probability at the June meeting. Opinion is evenly split between two and three further rises this year, and any shift in this pricing in light of coming events will echo through global markets.
Holidays this week in Japan and China may mean lower volumes today. Israel’s claims of proof of an Iranian nuclear weapons program boosted the prospect of sanctions and therefore oil prices.
Temporary exemptions from steel and aluminium tariffs for select US trade partners expire tonight, with no indication so far of whether there will be extensions. This weighs on base metals markets and has potential to reassert trade concerns as a primary market driver.