Copper rally leads overnight gains while ECB worries impact GBP
13:00, November 26 2015
· By Colin Cieszynski
As often happens when the US goes on holiday, stock markets around the world, including 24 hour trading on US indices, have been advancing in light trading. There hasn’t been much news, but traders appear to be taking the Turkey/Russia situation not getting any worse has been seen as a positive for stocks but a negative for oil markets, eroding the political risk premium.
The big action overnight has been in industrial metals which are rallying on the back of a call by Chinese metal producers on the government to buy up base metals to soak up oversupply and shore up metal prices. Chinese nickel producers also apparently have been discussing production cuts. Copper is up 2% on the news, which precious metals with industrial applications are also soaring with palladium up 2.5% and platinum up over 1%.
Somewhat surprisingly AUD has been sliding overnight particularly in relation to USD and JPY. A very poor capex report for Australia has been dragging on the dollar.
On the other hand, GBP has been weakening again this morning and has two big round number tests underway at $1.5000 for GBPUSD and $2.0000 for GBPCAD. Sterling appears to be getting caught up in a general concern about what could happen to European currencies around next week’s ECB meeting.
Governor Skingsley of Sweden’s Riksbank reminded everyone of the proximity problem as he indicated that it’s difficult for his central bank to deviate too far in policy from the ECB (due to the potential effect that could have on the currency). While other central backs in Europe have had to go dovish to match the ECB’s move toward stimulus, talk in the UK has been toward raising interest rates in 2016, so the divergence gap that may need to be closed is larger between the ECB and the Bank of England than for others. .
There are no major corporate announcements in North America today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
NZ Trade Balance ($963M) vs street ($1.0B)
Australia Q3 private capex (9.2%) vs street (2.9%) vs previous (4.0%)
Spain GDP 3.4% as expected
Sweden trade balance SEK (0.9B) vs street SEK 2.0B
Upcoming significant announcements include:
There are no major announcements scheduled for North America today.
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