A wild week ended with a wild Friday that saw copper stage a round trip between $2.50 and $2.75 as profit taking caused a big spike to collapse under its own weight. Meanwhile gold, WTI crude oil and Silver were all hammered downward. The last selloff in energy and metals torpedoed resource Dollars sending AUD, NZD and CAD sharply downward into the weekend. It looks like US indices would finish the week on their back foot in a normal correction but the US 30 rallied into the close, a bullish sign of accumulation.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 is sitting on its 50-day average near 5,360 and needs to clear 5,400 to break out of a three month downtrend. RSI I 50 suggests momentum could go either way. Initial support in a downturn possible near 5,335 then the 200-day average near 5,275.
Hong Kong 50 remains under pressure with falling RSI indicating downward momentum accelerating. The Index fell from a lower high near 22,760 down into the 22,200 to 22.360 area finishing the week near 22,260. Next downside support possible near the 22,000 round number.
Japan 225 has paused near 17,430 a Fibonacci level trading between 17.350 and 17.450. Higher lows indicated continued accumulation with next resistance near 17,795 and next support near 17,250.
North American and European Indices
US 30 climbed into the close, a sign of accumulation driving up off 18,740 toward a retest of resistance near 18,860 before finishing near 18,835. An overbought RSI has developed after a nearly 1,400 point rally in just over two days so a pause or correction remains possible in the near term. Initial support near 18,790 with next resistance near the 19,000 round number.
US NDAQ 100 remains under distribution with the index trading around 4,740 in the 4,710 to 4,760 range. Lower highs in the index and the RSI confirm a downtrend with next potential support near 4,690 then 4,650.
US SPX 500 has paused in the 2,155 to 2,170 range to digest this week’s rally, holding above its 50-day average near 2,145 to confirm an upswing is still underway. Channel resistance remains in place near 2,190.
UK 100 has resumed its downtrend with the index falling from a lower high near 6,850 toward the 6,730 to 6,770 area with next potential support near 6,650 then 6,600. RSI failing to retake 50 and turning down again confirms distribution.
Germany 30 remains in the upper half of a 10,000 to 10,880 sideways trading channel recently bouncing around between 10,590 and 10,710 holding above its 50-day average.
Gold continues to break down, taking out $1,250 a round number near the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the early 2016 advance and diving down toward $1,220. A lower high in the price not confirmed by the RSI a negative divergence but that may be trumped (no pun intended) by the massive bearish reversal in the weekly chart. Next downside support possible near $1,211 and $1,172 the 50% and 62% retracement levels.
Crude Oil WTI continues its retreat deeper into the lower half of a broad $40-$50 channel, dropping from $44.50 toward $43.25 and a test of the 200-day average near $43.10 with next support near $42.50 and $41.00. Falling RSI confirms downward momentum increasing.
Copper finished the week with a huge shooting star candle, a sign of a selling climax where completed a round trip between $2.50 and $2.75. Hugely overbought RSI indicates a correction possible with next support near $2.44 then $2.40.
US Dollar Index continues to encounter resistance near 99.00 and appears to be completing a double top falling back toward 98.60 with next potential support near 98.10 then 97.60. A lower high in the RSI indicates upward momentum weakening. Next upside resistance possible near the 100.00 round number then a measured 101.00.
EURUSD tried to stabilize near $1.0900 after a big plunge down from $1.1300 this week, but failed and staged another leg down into the $1.0830 to $1.0860 area. RSI setting a higher low near 40 suggests the recent selloff may be ending. Next support possible near $1.0800 with initial resistance near $1.0960 then $1.1000.
GBPUSD continues to recover, advancing to test its 50-day average and Fibonacci resistance near $1.2675 with next resistance after that possible near $1.2805. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum increasing. Support rises toward $1.2610 from $1.2525.
NZDUSD continues to nosedive, taking out $0.7195 a Fibonacci level, falling toward the $0.7120 to $0.7140 area with next potential support closer to $0.7000. RSI confirms momentum turning downward.
AUDUSD broke down Friday, taking out a trend support line near $0.7585 causing an ascending triangle to fail and signalling the start of a downtrend confirmed by the RSI diving back under 50., Next support possible at the 200-day average near the $0.7500 round number.
USDSGD has levelled off near $1.4100 consolidating its big breakout over $1.4000 having run into resistance near $1.4150. RSI overbought and a negative divergence suggest upward momentum may be peaking. Next support near $1.4070 then $1.4000.
USDJPY has run into resistance at its 200-day average near 106.70 and has paused in the 106.00 to 106.50 range to digest recent gains that have pushed the RSI toward the 70 overbought barrier. Next resistance near 107.40 with initial correction support near 105.15 a Fibonacci level. Overall the pair appears to be levelling off in the 106.00 to 107.00 range.
GBPJPY has another breakout underway, having cleared 132.95 a Fibonacci level and advancing into the 134.00 to 135.00 area with next potential resistance near 138.10 a 38% retracement of the post Brexit downtrend. RSI getting overbought so a pause or correction possible.
EURJPY failed to hold a breakout attempt over 116.00 faltering near 116.50 short of next resistance near 117.00. RSI suggests upward momentum levelling off. Initial correction support possible near 115.20 then 114.95.
USDCAD remains under accumulation with a rising RSI confirming advances for the pair up through $1.3500 and on toward $1.3540 with next potential resistance near $1.3570 a Fibonacci level. Support rises toward $1.3490 from $1.3390.
USDMXN has a trading correction underway after a spike up to 21.40 created an overbought condition that is now being worked off. The pair has dropped back into the 20.70 to 20.90 area with more support possible near 20.35 and 20.00 with initial resistance near 21.10.