Although major indices, particularly in the US have bounced up off early trading lows, they still appear to be rolling over and vulnerable to deeper corrections as Trump trade momentum goes the other way. In currency trading, SGD and JPY are breaking out today along with EUR and GBP while AUD and NZD are mixed.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is sending mixed signals holding steady near 5,765 below a triple top near 5,830 but still forming an ascending triangle of higher lows below that level. Support appears at the 50-day average near 5,720 then 5,665. RSI back above 50 suggests a trading bounce underway.
Japan 225 is holding above the 19,000 round number but looks vulnerable still stuck below its 50-day average and a broken uptrend line near 19,220. RSI holding below 50 indicates continuing distribution. Next potential support on a breakdown possible near 18,900 then 18,660.
Hong Kong 50 has been trading between 24,200 and 24,330 pausing to consolidate recent gains in a wider 24,150 to 24,450 range. A negative RSI divergence indicates upward momentum slowing.
North American and European Indices
US 30 remains under pressure, trading below 20,565 a lower high but above 20,500 having successfully tested 20,465. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward pressure increasing. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 20,285, a 23% retracement of the post-election rally
US SPX 500 is testing its 50-day average near 2,330 having pierced it overnight. Resistance falls toward 2,340 with next potential support near 2,320 then 2,313 a 23% retracement level. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward pressure.
US NDAQ 100 is falling away from a lower high near 5,395 having completed the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top. RSI testing 50 where a break would signal a downturn in momentum. Neckline support in place near 5,300 followed by the 50-day average near 5,260.
UK 100 is breaking down today, taking out 7,300 and an uptrend support line that may become resistance. RSI breaking under 50 confirms the downturn. Initial support near 7,263 a 23% retracement of its recent uptrend followed by 7,200.
Germany 30 is starting to break down again. The index failed to retake 12,040, also failing to call off a bearish rising wedge and has dropped back under 12,000 which it’s retesting as resistance trading between 11,930 and 11,990. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 11,840. RSI falling toward 50 and a negative divergence indicate upward momentum weakening.
Gold has rallied up toward its 200-day average near $1,260 and a test of channel resistance. Next potential test on a breakout appears near $1,278 a Fibonacci level. Initial pullback support possible near $1,256 then $1,242 where it rallied up from. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.
Crude Oil WTI continues to stabilize between $46.00 and $48.00 recently trading near $47.00. The price has paused to work off an oversold RSI and is holding uptrend support but at the same time in many ways, this is looking like a pause in a bigger downtrend rather than a base.
US Dollar Index is getting hammered again. The index has dropped from 99.50 down through 99.00. This signals the start of a new downleg with growing downward momentum confirmed by a falling RSI. Next potential support at the 200-day average near 98.65.
EURUSD is breaking out today. The pair has blasted through a Fibonacci cluster near $1.0840 which may become support, and has rallied to test its 200-day average near $1.0880 with next potential resistance near $1.0940 a Fibonacci level. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum still increasing.
GBPUSD is breaking out today! The pair has decisively cleared $1.2500 and $1.2550 soaring to test $1.2600 before settling back toward $1.2565. Next potential resistance at the February high and a Fibonacci level near $1.2685. RSI above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum accelerating.
NZDUSD continues to attract support above $0.7000 and appears to be swinging upward trading into the $0.7040 to $0.7060 area. It needs the RSI to retake 50 to confirm an upswing Next resistance possible near $0.7100 then a moving average cluster near $0.7155.
AUDUSD is still backsliding, falling away from $0.7725 resistance with resistance falling toward $0.7650 from $0.7680 and testing $0.7600. RSI falling under 50 indicates momentum turning downward with next potential support at the 200-day average near $0.7545 then $0.7500.
USDSGD is breaking down today, falling from near $1.4000 down through $1.3945 a Fibonacci level and on toward a test of its 200-day average near $1.3915 with next support after that possible near $1.3810. RSI under 50 and falling confirms increasing downward momentum.
USDJPY is breaking down again today, taking out 111.00 and falling to test the 110.00 big around number which has held so far with the index bouncing toward 110.50. Next potential support on a breakdown at a Fibonacci cluster near 109.10. Falling RSI confirms ongoing distribution.
GBPJPY is still attracting support above 138.10 and has rebounded toward 139.00 but it still faces significant resistance near 140.00 then 140.45. RSI level near 40 suggests continuing distribution within a falling channel bounded by the 50 and 200-day averages.
EURJPY is sitting on the 120.00 round number, pausing between 119.60 and 120.30 in what appears to be a normal consolidation within a bigger downswing. RSI under 50 indicates downward pressure intact. Next potential support near 119.05 a Fibonacci level with resistance near 121.00 and the 50-dya average.
USDCAD is trading just above $1.3300 the middle of a broad $1.3100 to $1.3500 channel, trading near $1.3380. Rising RSI holding 50 indicates continued accumulation. Next resistance near $1.3400 with next support near $1.3260.