The initial phase of Trump trading that followed the US election continues to unravel with indices and the US Dollar increasingly coming under distribution and approaching potential breakdown points. Meanwhile, markets that had been crushed in late 2016 continue to rebound like gold, JPY and EUR. GBP continues to rally against USD but is struggling against the surging Yen. CAD and MXN are also bouncing back from depressed levels even with the renegotiation of NAFTA in focus.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 increasingly appears to be under distribution. The index continues to trend downward, falling from near 5,690 toward 5,600 with next potential support at the 50-day average near 5,560 then 5,500. RSI breaking under 50 confirms a downturn in momentum.
Japan 225 continues to break down, taking out its 50-day average near 18,900 on its way down into the 18,800 to 18,880 range following a retest of 19,000 as resistance following a breakdown. Similarly, RSI retesting 50 as resistance and then falling confirms a downtrend underway. Next potential support near 18,645.
Hong Kong 50 is still struggling with 23,000 resistance and is starting to roll over, falling from 22,940 toward 22,880 with next potential support near 22,655 then the 50-day average near 22,450.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is rolling over again, sliding back under 19,800 into the lower third of its 19,700 to 20,000 trading channel. Initial downside support possible near 19,760 hen 19,730.. RSI near 50 indicates momentum has downshifted from upward to sideways.
US SPX 500 is drifting sideways near 2,265 below 2,282 resistance. A head and shoulders top in the RSI indicates the recent uptrend has peaked and a downturn possible. Next potential support tests near 2,252 then the 50-day average near 2,238.
US NDAQ 100 is hanging around 5,050-60 within a 5,000 to 5,070 trading range. RSI rolling over indicates upward momentum has peaked and may be starting to fade. Next upside near a measured 5,140 with next support at the 50-day average near 4,900.
UK 100 is breaking down today, taking out 7,200 a Fibonacci level and falling into the 7,150 to 7,180 area with next potential support near 7,100, a 38% retracement of its previous uptrend then the 7,000 round number. RSI testing 50 where a break would confirm a downturn in momentum.
Germany 30 continues to bounce around in a sideways range between 11,455 and 11,700. Today the index successfully retested the 11,500 round number and has bounced up into the 11,580 to 11,600 area. Falling RSI indicates upward momentum still weakening.
Gold has climbed back above $1,211 a Fibonacci level and it testing the top of its $1,200 to $1,218 trading channel with next resistance near $1,230 a Fibonacci test then a measured $1,236. RSI holding 60 and rising confirms upward momentum accelerating.
Crude Oil WTI is still stuck between $50.40 and $54.20 with RSI sitting on 50. This indicates the oil market remains in consolidation mode through today’s downdraft that has seen the price fall into the $51.60 to $52.00 range from $52.50. A symmetrical triangle of higher lows and lower highs and RSI holding 50 indicates this as a pause within a larger uptrend rather than a top forming.
US Dollar Index looks increasingly under distribution with resistance falling toward 100.45, the index near 100.25 and next potential downturn support near the 100.00 round number then 99.70 and 99.35. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward pressure increasing.
EURUSD is trying to stage a breakout with mixed success trading between $1.0700 and $1.0750 around $1.0720 a 38% Fibonacci retracement of its previous downtrend. Signals are mixed as a failed attempt is contradicted by a rising RSI that signals growing upward momentum. Next potential resistance near $1.0800 with next potential support near $1.0660.
GBPUSD is breaking out today! The pair has cleared its 50-day average and a channel top near $1.2410 and retested it as new higher support signalling the start of a new uptrend. Initial resistance has emerged near $1.2500 followed by $1.2575 while support rises toward $1.2460. RSI rallying up off 50 confirms a breakout and signals that upward momentum is accelerating.
NZDUSD is still steadily trending upward with support rising toward $0.7155 and the pair bumping up against $0.7235 where a breakout would complete an ascending triangle and confirm the start of a new uptrend. RSI confirms upward momentum still increasing. Next potential resistance near $0.7310 then $0.7400 on trend.
AUDUSD remains under accumulation, holding above $0.7500 its round number and 200-dya average breakout point. Support has moved up from there toward $0.7560 with next potential resistance near $0.7585 then $0.7625.
USDSGD continues to trend downward with resistance falling toward $1.4260 a Fibonacci level, and the pair dropping toward $1.4190 with next potential support near $1.4155 then $1.4085. RSI holding under 50 and falling confirms increasing distribution.
USDJPY remains in a wide 112.35 to 115.50 range where it has been digesting recent declines. Its larger downtrend appears to be resuming with the pair under its 50-day average near 114.75, taking out 114.05 a Fibonacci level and falling into the 112.90 to 113.20 area. RSI faltering short of 50 and falling again confirms downtrend intact and accelerating downward. Next potential support near 111.25, also a Fibonacci level.
GBPJPY is still having a tough time clearing 142.25 a Fibonacci level and 50 on the RSI two hurdles that need to be cleared to call off the recent downtrend. For now, the pair continues to trend downward falling into the 140.0 to 141.40 area near its 200-day average with next potential support near the 140.00 round number. On a breakout, next resistance may appear near 143.80.
EURJPY appears to be rolling downward. The pair has dropped from a lower high near 122.50 to ward 121.40 holding just above a 120.00 to 121.00 support zone which includes a round number, recent low and Fibonacci test. RSI bouncing around 50 indicates momentum neutral to downward.
USDCAD is starting to turn back downward again, having peaked at a lower high near $1.3390, resistance falling toward its 50-day average near $1.3350 and the pair dropping through $1.3300 a Fibonacci level on its way toward $1.3260 with next potential support near $1.3195. RSI peaking near 50 suggests the recent bounce may be over and a new downswing emerging.
USDMXN continues to fall away from 22.00 taking out 21.40 to call off a recent breakout and retesting that level as new resistance with next support near 21.25 then 21.00 and the 50-day average near 20.85. RSI falling toward 50 confirms upward momentum fading and a downturn pending.