The loonie has plunged off a cliff today enabling USDCAD to break out of an ascending triangle base. Meanwhile, gold and AUD continue to fall farther away from $1,300 and $0.8000 respectively. NZD has stabilized between its 50 and 200-day averages awaiting today’s RBNZ decision and statement on the economy and currency from Governor Wheeler.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 continues to slide toward 5,640 where a breakdown would complete a bearish descending triangle that has been forming between there and 5,800. RSi under 50 confirms the index has come under distribution. Resistance falls toward 5,680 from 5,700. Next support on a breakdown possible near 5,580.
Japan 225 continues to bounce around in a sideways range between 20,200 and 20,500 digesting a big rally up from 19.800 earlier this month. It remains to be seen if this is a top forming or a pause within an ongoing uptrend. Recent trading near 20,395 with initial support possible near 20,280 and initial resistance near20,445.
Hong Kong 50 has bounced back up toward 27,500 from 27,300 support but is struggling to retake its 50-day average near 27,550 recently peaking near 27,690. Similarly RSI remains stuck below 50 indicating recent trading as a trading bounce within a potentially bigger downtrend.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is swinging back and forth between 22,260 and 22,360, short of 22,420 resistance. A negative RSI divergence indicates upward momentum slowing but so far the index continues to attract support above its 22,210 and 22,000 recent breakout points keeping its underlying uptrend intact.
US SPX 500 is trading near 2,500, consolidating recent gains between 2,490 and 2,510. It remains in an uptrend but upward momentum has levelled off as the index’s drive higher takes a break.
US NDAQ 100 has bounced up from 5,880 toward 5,950 retaking its 50-day average and 50 on the RSI to call off a recent downswing and signal an upswing with next resistance near 5,970 then 6,000.
UK 100 has regained 7,300 but its current trading bounce continues to be contained by the 200-day average near 7,335. RSI still needs to regain 50 to break a downtrend and signal an upturn in momentum. Support remains in place near 7.270 with next resistance possible near 7,385 the 50-day average.
Germany 30 is breaking out today, clearing 12,650 to signal the start of a new upleg on trend and advancing on 12,690. RSI confirms upward momentum accelerating. Support rises toward 12,600 with next potential resistance near 12,735 then 12,800.
Commodities
Gold remains under distribution. Resistance drops from $1,300 toward the 50-day average near $1,292 and the price sliding under $1,290 toward $1,285. Next potential support appears near $1,282 a 50% retracement of the previous uptrend, then $1,276. RSI failing to retake 50 and falling again confirms increasing downward pressure.
WTI crude oil has paused between $51.00 and $52.15 trading near $51.8. The price is holding well above its $50.75 breakout point as it digests a big rally and works off a near-overbought RSI. So far this looks like a normal rest stop in an ongoing uptrend with next potential resistance near $52.40 then $53.40.
FX
US Dollar Index is breaking out of a base today, clearing 93.00 and advancing on 93.25. RSI back above 50 and rising confirms momentum turning increasingly upward. Next potential resistance near 94.00 then th3 95.00 round number based on measured moves from recent trading ranges.
EURUSD is accelerating downward after completing a head and shoulders top and breaking its 50-day average. Resistance falls toward $1.1800 with the pair near $1.1740 and next potential support near $1.1680 a 23% retracement of its previous uptrend. RSI falling away from 50 confirms increasing downward momentum.
GBPUSD continues to retreat, dropping away from $1.3500 toward $1.3400 with resistance falling toward $1.3475 and next potential support near $1.3360 then $1.3260.RSI falling toward 50 indicates a deepening correction.
NZDUSD is sending mixed signals ahead of the RBNZ. RSI bouncing between 40 and 60 indicates a sideways trend. The pair is having an inside consolidation day above support near $0.7170 then the 200-day average near $0.7150. The pair faces initial resistance near $0.7275 then the 50-day average near $0.7315.
AUDUSD continues to accelerate downward as shown by the RSI below 50 and falling. Resistance drops toward $0.7885 from the 50-day average near $0.7950. Next support possible in a zone between $0.7775 and $0.78925.
USDSGD is breaking out today with the pair clearing $1.3540 to complete an ascending triangle base and advancing on $1.3600. Meanwhile the RSI breaking 50 and rising confirms the breakout and increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance near $1.3640 then a measured $1.3680.
USDJPY is breaking out again today, clearing 112.60 to signal the start of a new upleg. RSI keeps climbing to confirm increasing upward momentum. The pair is testing 113.00 a Fibonacci level with next potential resistance after that near 113.55 and a Fibonacci cluster near 114.45.
GBPJPY is sitting on 151.00 as it continues to consolidate a big rally up from the low 140s in the 149.65 to 153.00 zone around the 150.00 round number. RSI continues to work off overbought conditions but hasn't fallen very far either.
EURJPY has successfully retested its 131.85 breakout point as new support, while the RSI holding 50 indicates its underlying uptrend remains intact. The pir has bounced back up toward 132.50 with next potential resistance near 134.35.
USDCAD is breaking out in a big way today, clearing $1.2400 to complete an ascending triangle base and signal the start of a new uptrend. The pair has advanced on $1.2470 with next potential resistance near the $1.2500 round number then $1.2600. RSI retaking 50 and carrying on upward confirms an accelerating uptrend.
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