Chart Signals: Asia Pacific Dollars rally, indices and CAD retreat
Another banner day appears to be underway for AUD, NZD and SGD which have been rallying following successful retests of recent breakout points. CAD, on the other hand, has gone the other way and broken down as it continues to reel from dovish Bank of Canada comments. Indices continue to show signs of distribution with the US30 testing a channel bottom while Australia 200, Hong Kong 50 and Japan 225 all struggle as well.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 tried to rebound but didn’t get very far running into resistance at a lower high near 5,690 then turning downward once again sliding toward 5,670 with next potential support near 5,650 and 5,600. RSI testing 50 where a break would confirm a downturn in momentum.
Japan 225 latest bounce appears to be running out of gas at a lower high near 19,180. RSI remains below 50 indicating its bigger downtrend remains intact and may be resuming with the index sliding back toward 19,030. A break of 19,000 round number support would signal the start of a new downtrend with next potential support at the 50,day average near 18,815.
Hong Kong 50 is holding just above 23,000 with its round number breakout point becoming higher support. Initial resistance in place near 23,055 then the 23,150 to 23,180 area and a measured 23,350. RSI suggests upward momentum pausing. Initial support in a pullback possible near 22,890 then 22,790.
North American and European Indices
US 30 appears to be under distribution as lower highs within a 19,700 to 20,000 channel form a descending triangle. Resistance has dropped toward 19,820 with the index testing the 19,700 channel bottom. RSI breaking under 50 confirms a downturn in momentum underway. Next downside support should the channel fail appears possible near 19,500 a round number and the 50-day average.
US SPX 500 is still sending mixed signals. A double top near 2,282 and a head and shoulders top in the RSI suggest the recent uptrend is over and a downturn likely but so far the trend of higher lows remains intact. Current support appears near 2,262 but should that fail, next downside tests appear near 2,252 then the 50-day average near 2,232.
US NDAQ 100 is trading near 5,050 as it continues to level off between 5,000 and 5,070. It remains unclear if this is a pause within an uptrend or a top forming. Next upside resistance near a measured 5,140 with next downside support at the 50-day average near 4,900.
UK 100 remains under pressure as its correction deepens with the index falling from a lower high near 7,265 toward a test of 7,200 a 23% Fibonacci retracement of its previous rally. Falling RSI indicates upward momentum fading. Next potential support near 7,175 then 7,100.
Germany 30 is still slowly drifting downward within an 11,445 to 11,700 trading channel recently trading between 11,560 and 11,600 with next support possible near 11,500. RSI drifting toward 50 indicates upward momentum weakening.
Gold is hanging around $1,200 trading between $1,196 and $1,204 as it continues to digest recent advances and breakouts at a higher level. More support possible near $1,188 with upside tests near $1,206, $1,218 and $1,230 a Fibonacci level.
Crude Oil WTI has stabilized in the $51.20 to $51.80 area for now, nested within yesterday’s wider $50.90 to $52.10 range. RSI near 50 indicates the broader $50.40 to $54.20 sideways trend remains intact with the potential for significant moves back and forth within that zone.
US Dollar Index is still bouncing around between 100.30 and 101.70 recently sliding from near 101.50 toward 101.20. A spinning top candle indicates bulls and bears in balance for now but RSI under 50 indicates ongoing distribution. Next potential support appears near 100.25 then 99.70.
EURUSD has levelled off near $1.0655 a Fibonacci level with RSI confirming the recent uptrend is stalling out. Next support and resistance appear near $1.0585 and $1.0720 both of which are also Fibonacci levels with the lower bound also near the 50-day average.
GBPUSD has resumed its upward course following a correction. Support has come in at a higher level near $1.2255 above where it broke out of a downtrend confirming the upturn. The pair has rebounded toward the $1.2310 to $1.2340 area. So far the rebound remains contained by 50-day average near $1.2410 but if that is overcome, next resistance appears near $1.2500. RSI holding 50 following a breakout also confirms momentum turning upward.
NZDUSD successfully retested $1.7115, where it broke out of a downtrend, as new support confirming the upturn. It has resumed its upswing advancing on $0.7180 with next potential resistance near $0.7215 and $0.7235 then $0.7335.
AUDUSD successfully retested $0.7500 its recent breakout point, round number and 200-day average and new support confirming the start of a new uptrend and has resumed advancing with a rally up toward $0.7570 with support rising toward $0.7530 and next potential resistance near $0.7645 then the $0.7700 to $0.7725 zone.
USDSGD’s trading bounce appears to be over, having been contained by its 50-day average near $1.4325. Its downtrend appears to be resuming with the RSI holding below 50 to confirm downward momentum and the pair falling to test $1.4255 Fibonacci support with the next test after that near $1.4200 then $1.4155.
USDJPY continues to rebound, rallying up off 114.00 support where its 50-day average and a Fibonacci level cluster. The rally has been contained so far by 115.50 Fibonacci resistance and 50 on the RSI indicating this as a bounce within a bigger downtrend. The pair appears to be rolling over again, sliding back under 115.00 with next potential support near 114.60.
GBPJPY has a number of big technical tests underway. The pair has rallied up into a key range between the 140.00 round number and 142.25 a Fibonacci level which contains the 50 and 200-day averages. Recently the pair has dropped back from 142.20 toward 141.60. Meanwhile RSI is taking a run at 50 from below where a breakout would signal a new uptrend but a failure would confirm a month long downtrend. Next resistance possible near 144.00 with next support near 138.10.
EURJPY is bouncing up off the bottom of its 120.50 to 124.15 trading range regaining 121.00 and rallying into the 122.30 to 122.70 zone with next resistance near 123.15. RSI rallying back up above 50 confirms momentum turning back upward.
USDCAD is breaking out today, clearing $1.3300 and advancing on $1.3345, with next potential upside resistance at its 50-day average near $1.345 then the $1.3500 round number. RSI retaking 50 confirms momentum turning back upward with support climbing toward $1.3320 from $1.3260