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Analysis

Chart of the week – Bearish reaction in WTI Crude below 200-day moving average

WTI Crude Oil

Chart of the week – WTI Crude 

Bearish reaction in WTI Crude below 200-day moving average

Short-term technical analysis (1 to 3 weeks)

(click to enlarge chart)

Time-stamped: 14 Aug 2022 at 12:00 pm SGT

Source: CMC Markets

  • WTI Crude (cash) has continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel since its 14 June 2022 swing high of 124.15 and tumbled by -29% to print a recent low of 88.22 on 5 August.
  • The recent rebound of +9% from the 5 August 2022 low of 88.22 has shown signs of exhaustion as it retested and reintegrated below its intermediate resistance of 93.50, which is defined by the former range support in place since the 15 March 2022 low that has been broken down on 3 August 2022.
  • Bearish bias below 98.00 key medium-term pivotal resistance for another potential leg of impulsive down move sequence within its ongoing medium-term downtrend phase since 14 June 2022 high towards the next support zone of 85.35/83.60.
  • On the other hand, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 98.00 negates the bearish tone to see an extension of the rebound towards the next resistance at 106.20 (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 14 June 2022 high to 5 August 2022 low).
  • Negative elements; price actions on last Friday, 12 August ended the US session with a daily bearish reaction candlestick that almost wiped out the entire gains of the prior session recorded on 11 August, the daily bearish reaction candlestick has taken shape right below the 200-day moving average, and the 4-hour RSI oscillator has shaped a retreat after a retest on its corresponding key resistance at the 62% level which indicates a revival of short-term downside momentum that may lead to a further down move in the price actions of WTI Crude (cash).


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