Reflecting back on the huge rally in global indices in October, it’s noticeable that the UK’s FTSE 100
has underperformed benchmark stock market averages in the US and Germany.
One-month return in copper and benchmark indices for UK, Germany, USA
One possible explanation is that the FTSE 100 is heavily-weighted with mining companies and barring gold, commodities have not rallied alongside stock markets. This is potentially a problem when it was the concerns over global growth that contributed to the sharp downturn in both equities and commodities in August.
FTSE 100 overlayed with the FTSE 350 mining index
It could mean that the FTSE 100 is about to catch up, but there’s a risk that its underperformance is a warning of hidden weakness in the global rally. If commodities rise alongside stocks in November, the global rally may extend another leg higher. Without commodities involved, there’s a chance the global equity rally could give way to another, possibly sharp decline. If there is a drop coming, the FTSE 100 could lead the way.
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