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US dollar consolidates losses as traders await Yellen and Poloz speeches

Stock markets were stable overnight with the initial shock of healthcare reform fading. Quickly ending a debate that was going in circles to move on to tax reform and maybe infrastructure spending helped to soften the blow.

This also sends a message to Congress they can't drag on debate forever and leaves the door open to back channel negotiations that could end up being more fruitful. That being said, progress is going to need to be made on something before traders lose patience with the political process. 

US index futures and the FTSE are up 0.1% while the Dax is up 0.6% and the Nikkei has gained 1.1% in a bigger bounce. ‎Currencies are holding steady with Gold, GBP, EUR and JPY holding on to recent gains. WTI Crude is up 0.7% essentially clawing back yesderday's loss.

The US dollar index remains below 100.00 level having taken the brunt of the selling pressure from the health care failure. Traders have recognized that the failure means that other initiatives could get watered down or delayed. Because of this President Trump's fiscal efforts may not be as stimula‎tive or inflationary as previously thought, easing the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. 

The inability of Congress to reach a deal also raises the risk of a big showdown later this year over the budget and debt ceiling. This could force the Fed to skip a quarterly hike, likely September. Last night Chicago Fed president Mr Evans indicated four hikes as unlikely based on how inflation is tracking and indicated he (speaking for the dovish faction at the Fed) favours two increases‎. 

Today, a number of FOMC members are out speaking today with the most important being Chair Yellen, and Governor Powell, a permanent voter who doesn't speak publicly very often. They may shed more light on the Fed's monetary plans for this year.

Canada may also attract some attention from traders today with Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaking. Earlier this year, Governor Poloz left the door open to an interest rate cut if Canada were to be impacted by US trade policy changes.

Since then, however, Canadian job growth has been spectacular, meetings between Canadian officials and their US counterparts have gone well and President Trump has made positive public statements about Canada. He approved Keystone XL last week ending eight years of delays and rejections under president Obama. Any change in tone from Governor Poloz could have a significant impact on trading in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) today. 

Corporate news

There have been no major corporate announcements today. 

Economic news

Significant announcements released overnight include:

Germany IFO Business climate        112.3 vs street 111.1
Germany IFO expectations        105.7 vs street 104.3
Germany IFO current assessment    119.3 vs street 118.3

Upcoming significant economic announcements include:

8:30 am EDT        US adv goods trade balance    street ($66.4B)

10:00 am EDT        US consumer confidence    street 114.0
10:00 am EDT        US Richmond Fed         street 15

10:10 am EDT        Bank of Canada Poloz speaking
11:10 am EDT        Bank of Canada Poloz press conference

12:45 pm EDT        FOMC George speaking
12:50 pm EDT        FOMC Yellen speaking 
1:00 pm EDT        FOMC Kaplan speaking
4:30 pm EDT        FOMC Powell speaking

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