Markets have remained volatile overnight as the shockwaves from yesterday's announcement that the UK government is looking to hold a snap election on June 8, worked their way around the world. Hong Kong and Australia indices fell 0.5%. Bourses have stabilised and in some cases bounced back slightly this morning. The FTSE is flat today, while the Dax and US index are up 0.2%.
Meanwhile in currency markets, GBP and EUR have held on to Tuesday's gains against the US Dollar. They may be active again today with the UK House of Commons set to vote on a snap election. A two-thirds majority is needed to overturn a fixed election date law, but a simple majority needed if a non-confidence motion is required.
The greenback has been sinking following yesterday's disappointing housing starts and declining manufacturing production. Signs of softness in the US economy appear to be pulling back the reins on rate hike expectations. Today's Beige Book regional report may impact expectations further.
Resource currencies like CAD and AUD have remained under pressure overnight, setting the stage for more activity in oil, metals, plus the shares of miners and energy companies. Copper has rebounded 0.6% but this is small relative to Tuesday's 2.1% tumble, let alone the 4.5% drop in Nickel and the 6.1% drop in Lead as base metals were crushed. The loonie also appears to have been impacted by comments from President Trump attacking the Canadian dairy industry as part of a wider talk about Buy America policies. This indicated that Canada cannot afford to get complacent about trade with the US and because of the ongoing risk of disruption, the Bank of Canada may need to keep a potential emergency rate cut in its back pocket after all.
Crude oil is trying to stabilise after sliding yesterday in choppy trading. The 0.8 mmbbl decline in API crude oil inventories was less than expected, dampening expectations for today's DOE report.
It's another big day for earnings reports. Morgan Stanley beat the street handily this morning. Last night, IBM beat slightly on EPS but missed on sales. After the US close today, Canadian Pacific, American Express and Qualcomm are due to report results.
Morgan Stanley $1.00 vs street $0.89
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US API crude oil inventories (0.8 mmbbls)
Eurozone trade balance €19.2B vs street €18.0B
Eurozone consumer prices 1.5% as expected
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
TBA UK House of Commons to vote on calling an election for June 8
10:30 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street (1.4 mmbbls)
10:30 am EDT   US DOE gasoline inventories street (2.0 mmbbls)
10:30 am EDT US DOE distillate inventories street (1.0 mmbbls)
12:30 pm EDT FOMC Rosengren speaking
2:00 pm EDT FOMC Beige Book
Heightened market volatility is likely over the election period, this could result in widened spreads. We recommend that you monitor positions carefully, consider the use of appropriate risk management tools and maintain a sufficient account surplus throughout this period.
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