Stock markets around the world appear to be stabilizing a bit today with European indices
trading flat to slightly higher and US indices trading flat to slightly lower. Focus remains firmly on earnings reports with another flood of results out overnight. Today’s crop is more diverse than yesterday and we could see a less dire reaction.
While tech results remained weak, reports across a broad range of sectors can in above expectations and health care (Bristol-Myers and Eli Lilly) even saw guidance increases. Caterpillar met expectations a sign of stabilization following recent disappointments from the commodity crash. Dow Chemical beat the street by a wide margin, indicating that companies who use energy commodities as a raw material like chemical companies, refiners and perhaps fertilizers could post another round of strong margins and results. General Motors, 3M and McDonalds all beating the street suggest robust consumer and industrial spending. Canadian earnings also have come in better than expected led by Rogers and Loblaws.
Currency markets have been mixed today. NZD has been the class of the field rallying strongly after the RBNZ cut its OCR interest rate again as the statement suggested it was starting to back away from aggressive easing to perhaps one more cut which would make for a total of 2-3 cuts this year, less than the 4 increases it made last year.
CAD has bounced back slightly today boosted by a rebound in Canadian retail sales and a stabilizing oil price. GBP, on the other hand, has been knocked back down after weak UK retail sales crushed speculation of an accelerated timetable toward UK interest rate liftoff.
US jobless claims fell to their lowest level in decades, indicating a robust labour market. While this adds to the case for raising interest rates this year, USD hasn’t moved very much, suggesting a September liftoff and 1-2 increases this year may have already been priced into the greenback.
Caterpillar $1.27 as expected, maintains full year guidance of $4.70-$5.00
Bristol-Myers $0.53 vs street $0.36, raises full year guidance to $1.70-$1.80 from $1.60-$1.70
Eli Lilly $0.90 vs street $0.74, raises full year guidance to $3.20-$3.30 from $3.10-$3.15
Freeport McMoRan $0.14 vs street $0.08
Dow Chemical $0.91 vs street $0.82
General Motors $1.29 vs street $1.08
McDonalds $1.26 vs street $1.23
3M $2.02 vs street $2.00
Union Pacific $1.38 vs street $1.35
American Express $1.42 vs street $1.32
Qualcomm $0.99 vs street $0.95, guides next Q to $0.75-$0.95, launches restructuring, considering separation of some businesses
Texas Instruments $0.65 as expected, guides next Q to $0.62-$0.72 below street $0.75
Rogers Communications $0.80 vs street $0.78, raises free cash flow guidance to $1.52-$1.67B from $1.35-$1.50B
Loblaw Companies $0.85 vs street $0.83
Teck Resources $0.14 vs street $0.12
Precision Drilling ($0.10) vs street ($0.19)
Significant announcements released overnight include:
NZ RBNZ interest rate 0.25% cut to 3.00% as expected
US jobless claims 255K vs street 278K
Canada retail sales 1.0% vs street 0.6%and previous (0.1%)
Canada retail ex auto 0.9% vs street 0.8%
UK retail sales 4.0% vs street 4.8%
UK retail ex auto and fuel 4.2% vs street 5.1%
Spain unemployment rate 22.4% vs street 22.5%
Sweden unemployment rate 8.5% vs street 9.0%
Japan trade balance (¥69B) vs street ¥46B
Singapore consumer prices (0.3%) as expected
Singapore core CPI 0.2% vs street 0.1%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
10:00 am EDT US leading index street 0.3%
10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 72 BCF
TBA South Africa interest rate 0.25% increase to 6.00% widely expected
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